Art Freiler: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,357	2370.9	− 2432	−61.1	× 101 / 680	−9.1
4	81,360	2441.4	− 2473	−31.6	× 115 / 680	−5.3
5	81,361	2496.1	− 2502	−5.9	× 111 / 680	−1
6	81,363	2499.9	− 2531	−31.1	× 120 / 680	−5.5
7	81,366	2562.3	− 2552	10.3	× 118 / 680	1.8
8	81,367	2568.2	− 2567	1.2	× 115 / 680	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,419	2374.3	− 2432	−57.7	× 95 / 640	−8.6
4	75,421	2414.8	− 2473	−58.2	× 101 / 640	−9.2
5	75,423	2514.1	− 2502	12.1	× 110 / 640	2.1
6	75,425	2540.7	− 2531	9.7	× 108 / 640	1.6
7	75,427	2549.5	− 2552	−2.5	× 114 / 640	−0.4
8	75,429	2585.0	− 2567	18	× 112 / 640	3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,433	2393.6	− 2432	−38.4	× 94 / 637	−5.7
4	77,436	2435.0	− 2473	−38	× 104 / 637	−6.2
5	77,437	2483.7	− 2502	−18.3	× 103 / 637	−3
6	77,439	2523.7	− 2531	−7.3	× 121 / 637	−1.4
7	77,442	2559.4	− 2552	7.4	× 104 / 637	1.2
8	77,444	2546.5	− 2567	−20.5	× 111 / 637	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,616	2411.7	− 2432	−20.3	× 86 / 606	−2.9
4	77,619	2433.7	− 2473	−39.3	× 92 / 606	−6
5	77,621	2481.1	− 2502	−20.9	× 104 / 606	−3.6
6	77,623	2508.8	− 2531	−22.2	× 103 / 606	−3.8
7	77,625	2538.4	− 2552	−13.6	× 117 / 606	−2.6
8	77,627	2568.6	− 2567	1.6	× 104 / 606	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,132	2410.7	− 2432	−21.3	× 104 / 598	−3.7
4	78,133	2460.2	− 2473	−12.8	× 87 / 598	−1.9
5	78,134	2496.7	− 2502	−5.3	× 85 / 598	−0.8
6	78,135	2504.0	− 2531	−27	× 105 / 598	−4.7
7	78,136	2541.8	− 2552	−10.2	× 98 / 598	−1.7
8	78,137	2579.9	− 2567	12.9	× 119 / 598	2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,665	2360.8	− 2432	−71.2	× 81 / 548	−10.5
4	76,666	2448.1	− 2473	−24.9	× 85 / 548	−3.9
5	76,667	2459.2	− 2502	−42.8	× 103 / 548	−8
6	76,668	2494.8	− 2531	−36.2	× 97 / 548	−6.4
7	76,669	2518.3	− 2552	−33.7	× 86 / 548	−5.3
8	76,670	2542.2	− 2567	−24.8	× 96 / 548	−4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,278	2391.4	− 2432	−40.6	× 69 / 554	−5.1
4	78,279	2415.0	− 2473	−58	× 89 / 554	−9.3
5	78,280	2506.6	− 2502	4.6	× 93 / 554	0.8
6	78,281	2478.1	− 2531	−52.9	× 110 / 554	−10.5
7	78,282	2539.6	− 2552	−12.4	× 106 / 554	−2.4
8	78,283	2526.1	− 2567	−40.9	× 87 / 554	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,270	2396.8	− 2432	−35.2	× 70 / 545	−4.5
4	78,271	2473.9	− 2473	0.9	× 70 / 545	0.1
5	78,272	2484.1	− 2502	−17.9	× 86 / 545	−2.8
6	78,273	2495.4	− 2531	−35.6	× 100 / 545	−6.5
7	78,274	2509.9	− 2552	−42.1	× 107 / 545	−8.3
8	78,275	2547.1	− 2567	−19.9	× 112 / 545	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,286	2351.5	− 2432	−80.5	× 71 / 533	−10.7
4	78,287	2456.1	− 2473	−16.9	× 69 / 533	−2.2
5	78,288	2522.3	− 2502	20.3	× 68 / 533	2.6
6	78,289	2471.9	− 2531	−59.1	× 108 / 533	−12
7	78,290	2538.8	− 2552	−13.2	× 103 / 533	−2.6
8	78,291	2526.8	− 2567	−40.2	× 114 / 533	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,954	2392.1	− 2432	−39.9	× 79 / 540	−5.8
4	77,955	2438.1	− 2473	−34.9	× 77 / 540	−5
5	77,956	2519.7	− 2502	17.7	× 72 / 540	2.4
6	77,957	2494.6	− 2531	−36.4	× 100 / 540	−6.7
7	77,958	2511.9	− 2552	−40.1	× 109 / 540	−8.1
8	77,959	2547.5	− 2567	−19.5	× 103 / 540	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −19, −11, −19, −19, −10, −38, −33, −26, −33, −27 → −23.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2021: 28 · 2021→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 8.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.7 × 2.66 = 23.1. Upper limit −0.4, lower limit −46.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.