Van Buren Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,994	2325.5	− 2432	−106.5	× 83 / 388	−22.8
4	80,995	2361.5	− 2473	−111.5	× 61 / 388	−17.5
5	80,998	2371.1	− 2502	−130.9	× 65 / 388	−21.9
6	81,000	2431.9	− 2531	−99.1	× 62 / 388	−15.8
7	81,002	2471.8	− 2552	−80.2	× 61 / 388	−12.6
8	81,003	2513.6	− 2567	−53.4	× 56 / 388	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,094	2316.2	− 2432	−115.8	× 64 / 380	−19.5
4	75,097	2362.4	− 2473	−110.6	× 71 / 380	−20.7
5	75,098	2378.7	− 2502	−123.3	× 62 / 380	−20.1
6	75,100	2406.9	− 2531	−124.1	× 67 / 380	−21.9
7	75,102	2454.6	− 2552	−97.4	× 57 / 380	−14.6
8	75,104	2486.6	− 2567	−80.4	× 59 / 380	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,104	2315.8	− 2432	−116.2	× 55 / 378	−16.9
4	77,106	2345.0	− 2473	−128	× 72 / 378	−24.4
5	77,107	2370.1	− 2502	−131.9	× 71 / 378	−24.8
6	77,109	2413.2	− 2531	−117.8	× 56 / 378	−17.5
7	77,111	2444.9	− 2552	−107.1	× 62 / 378	−17.6
8	77,113	2484.1	− 2567	−82.9	× 62 / 378	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,292	2346.9	− 2432	−85.1	× 52 / 353	−12.5
4	77,295	2362.8	− 2473	−110.2	× 56 / 353	−17.5
5	77,296	2383.4	− 2502	−118.6	× 67 / 353	−22.5
6	77,298	2406.5	− 2531	−124.5	× 64 / 353	−22.6
7	77,300	2505.4	− 2552	−46.6	× 57 / 353	−7.5
8	77,303	2465.8	− 2567	−101.2	× 57 / 353	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,808	2349.8	− 2432	−82.2	× 48 / 330	−12
4	77,809	2352.9	− 2473	−120.1	× 53 / 330	−19.3
5	77,810	2422.0	− 2502	−80	× 52 / 330	−12.6
6	77,811	2451.8	− 2531	−79.2	× 58 / 330	−13.9
7	77,812	2435.6	− 2552	−116.4	× 57 / 330	−20.1
8	77,813	2516.0	− 2567	−51	× 62 / 330	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,944	2322.5	− 2432	−109.5	× 65 / 349	−20.4
4	77,945	2346.2	− 2473	−126.8	× 63 / 349	−22.9
5	77,946	2423.6	− 2502	−78.4	× 70 / 349	−15.7
6	77,947	2428.8	− 2531	−102.2	× 48 / 349	−14.1
7	77,948	2470.2	− 2552	−81.8	× 52 / 349	−12.2
8	77,949	2475.5	− 2567	−91.5	× 51 / 349	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,936	2311.4	− 2432	−120.6	× 56 / 344	−19.6
4	77,937	2342.3	− 2473	−130.7	× 61 / 344	−23.2
5	77,938	2402.4	− 2502	−99.6	× 61 / 344	−17.7
6	77,939	2447.8	− 2531	−83.2	× 61 / 344	−14.8
7	77,940	2452.2	− 2552	−99.8	× 53 / 344	−15.4
8	77,941	2482.1	− 2567	−84.9	× 52 / 344	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,954	2342.7	− 2432	−89.3	× 53 / 301	−15.7
4	77,955	2378.0	− 2473	−95	× 53 / 301	−16.7
5	77,956	2409.5	− 2502	−92.5	× 51 / 301	−15.7
6	77,957	2452.8	− 2531	−78.2	× 50 / 301	−13
7	77,958	2466.7	− 2552	−85.3	× 45 / 301	−12.8
8	77,959	2450.4	− 2567	−116.6	× 49 / 301	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,616	2326.9	− 2432	−105.1	× 63 / 296	−22.4
4	77,617	2370.2	− 2473	−102.8	× 50 / 296	−17.4
5	77,618	2420.1	− 2502	−81.9	× 47 / 296	−13
6	77,619	2428.3	− 2531	−102.7	× 50 / 296	−17.3
7	77,620	2471.7	− 2552	−80.3	× 48 / 296	−13
8	77,621	2513.7	− 2567	−53.3	× 38 / 296	−6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −98, −109, −115, −99, −87, −99, −103, −93, −90 → −99.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 16 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 9.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.3 × 2.66 = 24.7. Upper limit −74.5, lower limit −123.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.