Carlton Oaks Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,615	2416.3	− 2432	−15.7	× 74 / 562	−2.1
4	75,617	2490.0	− 2473	17	× 99 / 562	3
5	75,619	2513.6	− 2502	11.6	× 91 / 562	1.9
6	75,621	2546.3	− 2531	15.3	× 96 / 562	2.6
7	75,623	2559.8	− 2552	7.8	× 98 / 562	1.4
8	75,625	2564.5	− 2567	−2.5	× 104 / 562	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,132	2437.9	− 2432	5.9	× 91 / 574	0.9
4	70,135	2483.2	− 2473	10.2	× 84 / 574	1.5
5	70,137	2517.9	− 2502	15.9	× 95 / 574	2.6
6	70,139	2558.7	− 2531	27.7	× 83 / 574	4
7	70,140	2567.8	− 2552	15.8	× 113 / 574	3.1
8	70,143	2593.6	− 2567	26.6	× 108 / 574	5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,985	2403.7	− 2432	−28.3	× 67 / 559	−3.4
4	71,988	2487.7	− 2473	14.7	× 93 / 559	2.4
5	71,990	2496.1	− 2502	−5.9	× 82 / 559	−0.9
6	71,992	2547.4	− 2531	16.4	× 101 / 559	3
7	71,994	2555.2	− 2552	3.2	× 93 / 559	0.5
8	71,995	2584.3	− 2567	17.3	× 123 / 559	3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,127	2445.4	− 2432	13.4	× 77 / 559	1.8
4	72,129	2497.2	− 2473	24.2	× 74 / 559	3.2
5	72,131	2522.5	− 2502	20.5	× 98 / 559	3.6
6	72,133	2527.5	− 2531	−3.5	× 81 / 559	−0.5
7	72,135	2563.0	− 2552	11	× 133 / 559	2.6
8	72,137	2562.1	− 2567	−4.9	× 96 / 559	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,612	2432.1	− 2432	0.1	× 96 / 592	0
4	72,613	2502.6	− 2473	29.6	× 74 / 592	3.7
5	72,614	2501.0	− 2502	−1	× 85 / 592	−0.1
6	72,615	2557.0	− 2531	26	× 104 / 592	4.6
7	72,616	2563.2	− 2552	11.2	× 103 / 592	1.9
8	72,617	2588.8	− 2567	21.8	× 130 / 592	4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,095	2452.7	− 2432	20.7	× 99 / 536	3.8
4	71,096	2495.0	− 2473	22	× 67 / 536	2.8
5	71,097	2500.8	− 2502	−1.2	× 89 / 536	−0.2
6	71,098	2561.7	− 2531	30.7	× 72 / 536	4.1
7	71,099	2584.4	− 2552	32.4	× 83 / 536	5
8	71,100	2570.2	− 2567	3.2	× 126 / 536	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,690	2442.1	− 2432	10.1	× 90 / 555	1.6
4	72,691	2474.1	− 2473	1.1	× 89 / 555	0.2
5	72,692	2523.4	− 2502	21.4	× 87 / 555	3.4
6	72,693	2539.8	− 2531	8.8	× 109 / 555	1.7
7	72,694	2580.4	− 2552	28.4	× 92 / 555	4.7
8	72,695	2596.4	− 2567	29.4	× 88 / 555	4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,688	2458.1	− 2432	26.1	× 79 / 560	3.7
4	72,689	2492.8	− 2473	19.8	× 89 / 560	3.1
5	72,690	2513.6	− 2502	11.6	× 93 / 560	1.9
6	72,691	2537.0	− 2531	6	× 85 / 560	0.9
7	72,692	2567.8	− 2552	15.8	× 122 / 560	3.4
8	72,693	2595.2	− 2567	28.2	× 92 / 560	4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,670	2474.4	− 2432	42.4	× 82 / 553	6.3
4	72,671	2489.1	− 2473	16.1	× 74 / 553	2.2
5	72,672	2522.6	− 2502	20.6	× 87 / 553	3.2
6	72,673	2539.7	− 2531	8.7	× 94 / 553	1.5
7	72,674	2562.6	− 2552	10.6	× 98 / 553	1.9
8	72,675	2587.7	− 2567	20.7	× 118 / 553	4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,384	2444.0	− 2432	12	× 91 / 518	2.1
4	72,385	2505.4	− 2473	32.4	× 80 / 518	5
5	72,386	2516.8	− 2502	14.8	× 70 / 518	2
6	72,387	2538.1	− 2531	7.1	× 86 / 518	1.2
7	72,388	2571.6	− 2552	19.6	× 99 / 518	3.7
8	72,389	2571.5	− 2567	4.5	× 92 / 518	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 6, 17, 5, 10, 15, 16, 16, 18, 19, 15 → 13.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2021: 1 · 2021→2022: 0 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 4.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.6 × 2.66 = 12.2. Upper limit 25.9, lower limit 1.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.