Flying Hills Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,224	2393.3	− 2432	−38.7	× 64 / 255	−9.7
4	70,227	2438.9	− 2473	−34.1	× 79 / 255	−10.6
5	70,228	2464.5	− 2502	−37.5	× 48 / 255	−7.1
6	70,231	2522.8	− 2531	−8.2	× 64 / 255	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,101	2407.9	− 2432	−24.1	× 85 / 291	−7
4	65,104	2451.9	− 2473	−21.1	× 81 / 291	−5.9
5	65,106	2479.3	− 2502	−22.7	× 77 / 291	−6
6	65,108	2503.0	− 2531	−28	× 48 / 291	−4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,918	2414.6	− 2432	−17.4	× 93 / 315	−5.1
4	66,919	2435.0	− 2473	−38	× 85 / 315	−10.3
5	66,922	2468.9	− 2502	−33.1	× 74 / 315	−7.8
6	66,924	2520.9	− 2531	−10.1	× 63 / 315	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,021	2416.7	− 2432	−15.3	× 70 / 318	−3.4
4	67,024	2471.5	− 2473	−1.5	× 93 / 318	−0.4
5	67,025	2483.0	− 2502	−19	× 90 / 318	−5.4
6	67,028	2521.8	− 2531	−9.2	× 65 / 318	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,514	2398.3	− 2432	−33.7	× 77 / 304	−8.5
4	67,515	2481.3	− 2473	8.3	× 72 / 304	2
5	67,516	2496.5	− 2502	−5.5	× 88 / 304	−1.6
6	67,517	2515.5	− 2531	−15.5	× 67 / 304	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,656	2413.0	− 2432	−19	× 69 / 428	−3.1
4	67,657	2414.0	− 2473	−59	× 80 / 428	−11
5	67,658	2495.0	− 2502	−7	× 72 / 428	−1.2
6	67,659	2477.4	− 2531	−53.6	× 76 / 428	−9.5
7	67,660	2560.8	− 2552	8.8	× 64 / 428	1.3
8	67,661	2495.5	− 2567	−71.5	× 67 / 428	−11.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,664	2389.9	− 2432	−42.1	× 76 / 447	−7.2
4	67,665	2424.1	− 2473	−48.9	× 76 / 447	−8.3
5	67,666	2453.1	− 2502	−48.9	× 80 / 447	−8.8
6	67,667	2466.6	− 2531	−64.4	× 76 / 447	−10.9
7	67,668	2485.0	− 2552	−67	× 77 / 447	−11.5
8	67,669	2566.1	− 2567	−0.9	× 62 / 447	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,658	2373.0	− 2432	−59	× 68 / 445	−9
4	67,659	2415.2	− 2473	−57.8	× 83 / 445	−10.8
5	67,660	2454.7	− 2502	−47.3	× 66 / 445	−7
6	67,661	2463.3	− 2531	−67.7	× 78 / 445	−11.9
7	67,662	2517.3	− 2552	−34.7	× 69 / 445	−5.4
8	67,663	2520.6	− 2567	−46.4	× 81 / 445	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,416	2363.6	− 2432	−68.4	× 78 / 475	−11.2
4	67,417	2410.2	− 2473	−62.8	× 77 / 475	−10.2
5	67,418	2463.8	− 2502	−38.2	× 87 / 475	−7
6	67,419	2485.7	− 2531	−45.3	× 78 / 475	−7.4
7	67,420	2491.2	− 2552	−60.8	× 77 / 475	−9.9
8	67,421	2548.9	− 2567	−18.1	× 78 / 475	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −29, −24, −25, −11, −12, −35, −47, −53, −49 → −31.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 8.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.3 × 2.66 = 22.1. Upper limit −9.6, lower limit −53.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.