Lincoln Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,090	2343.5	− 2432	−88.5	× 165 / 426	−34.3
4	68,093	2375.6	− 2473	−97.4	× 144 / 426	−32.9
5	68,094	2424.5	− 2502	−77.5	× 117 / 426	−21.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,100	2328.8	− 2432	−103.2	× 175 / 496	−36.4
4	63,101	2386.6	− 2473	−86.4	× 175 / 496	−30.5
5	63,103	2432.6	− 2502	−69.4	× 146 / 496	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,887	2339.3	− 2432	−92.7	× 113 / 423	−24.8
4	64,889	2365.5	− 2473	−107.5	× 161 / 423	−40.9
5	64,892	2421.2	− 2502	−80.8	× 149 / 423	−28.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,977	2331.2	− 2432	−100.8	× 131 / 388	−34
4	64,980	2375.0	− 2473	−98	× 113 / 388	−28.5
5	64,982	2411.3	− 2502	−90.7	× 144 / 388	−33.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−96

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,342	2348.2	− 2432	−83.8	× 129 / 368	−29.4
4	65,343	2374.2	− 2473	−98.8	× 121 / 368	−32.5
5	65,344	2425.8	− 2502	−76.2	× 118 / 368	−24.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,433	2298.7	− 2432	−133.3	× 110 / 304	−48.2
4	65,434	2354.0	− 2473	−119	× 99 / 304	−38.8
5	65,435	2394.9	− 2502	−107.1	× 95 / 304	−33.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,438	2323.4	− 2432	−108.6	× 96 / 282	−37
4	65,439	2334.7	− 2473	−138.3	× 94 / 282	−46.1
5	65,440	2402.5	− 2502	−99.5	× 92 / 282	−32.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,406	2330.9	− 2432	−101.1	× 103 / 275	−37.9
4	65,407	2376.9	− 2473	−96.1	× 81 / 275	−28.3
5	65,408	2388.4	− 2502	−113.6	× 91 / 275	−37.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,166	2333.7	− 2432	−98.3	× 96 / 273	−34.6
4	65,167	2394.9	− 2473	−78.1	× 91 / 273	−26
5	65,168	2436.6	− 2502	−65.4	× 86 / 273	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −88, −87, −94, −96, −86, −120, −116, −104, −81 → −96.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 34 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 23 → average 11.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.6 × 2.66 = 30.9. Upper limit −66, lower limit −127.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.