Mojave River Academy - National Trails: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	64,245	2457.3	− 2531	−73.7	× 12 / 209	−4.2
7	64,246	2491.8	− 2552	−60.2	× 35 / 209	−10.1
8	64,247	2496.7	− 2567	−70.3	× 46 / 209	−15.5
11	64,248	2550.7	− 2583	−32.3	× 116 / 209	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,315	2300.9	− 2432	−131.1	× 12 / 286	−5.5
4	64,316	2377.2	− 2473	−95.8	× 15 / 286	−5
5	64,317	2417.5	− 2502	−84.5	× 17 / 286	−5
6	64,318	2479.1	− 2531	−51.9	× 25 / 286	−4.5
7	64,319	2481.3	− 2552	−70.7	× 26 / 286	−6.4
8	64,320	2484.6	− 2567	−82.4	× 28 / 286	−8.1
11	64,321	2525.7	− 2583	−57.3	× 163 / 286	−32.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,298	2311.5	− 2432	−120.5	× 13 / 323	−4.8
5	64,300	2424.1	− 2502	−77.9	× 21 / 323	−5.1
6	64,301	2432.3	− 2531	−98.7	× 31 / 323	−9.5
7	64,302	2485.8	− 2552	−66.2	× 36 / 323	−7.4
8	64,303	2479.1	− 2567	−87.9	× 49 / 323	−13.3
11	64,304	2524.4	− 2583	−58.6	× 173 / 323	−31.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,272	2295.6	− 2432	−136.4	× 17 / 374	−6.2
4	64,273	2364.6	− 2473	−108.4	× 16 / 374	−4.6
5	64,274	2409.6	− 2502	−92.4	× 14 / 374	−3.5
6	64,275	2430.4	− 2531	−100.6	× 39 / 374	−10.5
7	64,276	2462.9	− 2552	−89.1	× 54 / 374	−12.9
8	64,277	2479.2	− 2567	−87.8	× 66 / 374	−15.5
11	64,278	2521.8	− 2583	−61.2	× 168 / 374	−27.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,036	2349.5	− 2432	−82.5	× 21 / 401	−4.3
4	64,037	2381.9	− 2473	−91.1	× 20 / 401	−4.5
5	64,038	2402.1	− 2502	−99.9	× 13 / 401	−3.2
6	64,039	2455.5	− 2531	−75.5	× 40 / 401	−7.5
7	64,040	2451.3	− 2552	−100.7	× 63 / 401	−15.8
8	64,041	2480.8	− 2567	−86.2	× 83 / 401	−17.8
11	64,042	2502.6	− 2583	−80.4	× 161 / 401	−32.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −48, −67, −71, −81, −86 → −70.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 9.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.5 × 2.66 = 25.3. Upper limit −45.3, lower limit −95.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.