Howard Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,715	2369.9	− 2432	−62.1	× 87 / 370	−14.6
4	66,717	2437.3	− 2473	−35.7	× 100 / 370	−9.6
5	66,719	2493.4	− 2502	−8.6	× 89 / 370	−2.1
6	66,721	2492.5	− 2531	−38.5	× 94 / 370	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,887	2385.5	− 2432	−46.5	× 71 / 343	−9.6
4	61,889	2420.8	− 2473	−52.2	× 81 / 343	−12.3
5	61,892	2501.6	− 2502	−0.4	× 95 / 343	−0.1
6	61,893	2535.3	− 2531	4.3	× 96 / 343	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,677	2410.1	− 2432	−21.9	× 101 / 347	−6.4
4	63,679	2467.6	− 2473	−5.4	× 67 / 347	−1
5	63,682	2489.2	− 2502	−12.8	× 78 / 347	−2.9
6	63,684	2536.8	− 2531	5.8	× 101 / 347	1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,783	2418.2	− 2432	−13.8	× 87 / 337	−3.6
4	63,785	2488.8	− 2473	15.8	× 100 / 337	4.7
5	63,787	2507.6	− 2502	5.6	× 69 / 337	1.1
6	63,789	2541.5	− 2531	10.5	× 81 / 337	2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,048	2435.8	− 2432	3.8	× 63 / 327	0.7
4	64,049	2480.2	− 2473	7.2	× 89 / 327	2
5	64,050	2505.2	− 2502	3.2	× 104 / 327	1
6	64,051	2561.4	− 2531	30.4	× 71 / 327	6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,137	2390.9	− 2432	−41.1	× 124 / 329	−15.5
4	64,138	2445.3	− 2473	−27.7	× 65 / 329	−5.5
5	64,139	2448.1	− 2502	−53.9	× 73 / 329	−12
6	64,140	2557.0	− 2531	26	× 67 / 329	5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,120	2371.2	− 2432	−60.8	× 50 / 259	−11.7
4	64,121	2459.1	− 2473	−13.9	× 73 / 259	−3.9
5	64,122	2471.7	− 2502	−30.3	× 64 / 259	−7.5
6	64,123	2518.0	− 2531	−13	× 72 / 259	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,094	2380.2	− 2432	−51.8	× 57 / 256	−11.5
4	64,095	2428.4	− 2473	−44.6	× 57 / 256	−9.9
5	64,096	2490.7	− 2502	−11.3	× 73 / 256	−3.2
6	64,097	2524.6	− 2531	−6.4	× 69 / 256	−1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,856	2427.5	− 2432	−4.5	× 65 / 257	−1.1
4	63,857	2447.4	− 2473	−25.6	× 61 / 257	−6.1
5	63,858	2479.9	− 2502	−22.1	× 61 / 257	−5.2
6	63,859	2533.1	− 2531	2.1	× 70 / 257	0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −36, −21, −9, 5, 10, −28, −27, −26, −12 → −16
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 15 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 38 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 12.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.5 × 2.66 = 33.3. Upper limit 17.3, lower limit −49.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.