Joshua Tree Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,282	2360.6	− 2432	−71.4	× 64 / 188	−24.3
4	66,284	2400.1	− 2473	−72.9	× 42 / 188	−16.3
5	66,287	2450.3	− 2502	−51.7	× 41 / 188	−11.3
6	66,289	2473.2	− 2531	−57.8	× 41 / 188	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,457	2412.0	− 2432	−20	× 44 / 179	−4.9
4	61,460	2388.1	− 2473	−84.9	× 58 / 179	−27.5
5	61,461	2458.9	− 2502	−43.1	× 38 / 179	−9.1
6	61,463	2498.2	− 2531	−32.8	× 39 / 179	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,238	2353.8	− 2432	−78.2	× 42 / 187	−17.6
4	63,240	2421.0	− 2473	−52	× 50 / 187	−13.9
5	63,242	2427.0	− 2502	−75	× 57 / 187	−22.9
6	63,243	2490.1	− 2531	−40.9	× 38 / 187	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,337	2395.9	− 2432	−36.1	× 41 / 170	−8.7
4	63,339	2383.9	− 2473	−89.1	× 33 / 170	−17.3
5	63,341	2445.7	− 2502	−56.3	× 46 / 170	−15.2
6	63,343	2457.3	− 2531	−73.7	× 50 / 170	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,588	2367.4	− 2432	−64.6	× 39 / 158	−15.9
4	63,589	2413.9	− 2473	−59.1	× 40 / 158	−15
5	63,590	2455.2	− 2502	−46.8	× 35 / 158	−10.4
6	63,591	2498.4	− 2531	−32.6	× 44 / 158	−9.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,213	2366.6	− 2432	−65.4	× 39 / 142	−18
4	62,214	2404.6	− 2473	−68.4	× 43 / 142	−20.7
5	62,215	2417.7	− 2502	−84.3	× 33 / 142	−19.6
6	62,216	2485.6	− 2531	−45.4	× 27 / 142	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,677	2359.4	− 2432	−72.6	× 39 / 149	−19
4	63,678	2407.8	− 2473	−65.2	× 38 / 149	−16.6
5	63,679	2446.5	− 2502	−55.5	× 42 / 149	−15.6
6	63,680	2445.8	− 2531	−85.2	× 30 / 149	−17.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,620	2386.2	− 2432	−45.8	× 36 / 154	−10.7
4	63,621	2406.5	− 2473	−66.5	× 35 / 154	−15.1
5	63,622	2441.9	− 2502	−60.1	× 41 / 154	−16
6	63,623	2489.5	− 2531	−41.5	× 42 / 154	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,594	2399.7	− 2432	−32.3	× 42 / 141	−9.6
4	63,595	2429.8	− 2473	−43.2	× 30 / 141	−9.2
5	63,596	2460.2	− 2502	−41.8	× 31 / 141	−9.2
6	63,597	2493.4	− 2531	−37.6	× 38 / 141	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,358	2392.9	− 2432	−39.1	× 34 / 137	−9.7
4	63,359	2422.8	− 2473	−50.2	× 37 / 137	−13.6
5	63,360	2479.1	− 2502	−22.9	× 30 / 137	−5
6	63,361	2498.0	− 2531	−33	× 36 / 137	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −64, −49, −63, −63, −50, −67, −68, −53, −38, −37 → −55.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 15 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 1 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 15 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −28.3, lower limit −82.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.