Michael D'arcy Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	65,522	2392.3	− 2432	−39.7	× 65 / 293	−8.8
4	65,524	2447.7	− 2473	−25.3	× 69 / 293	−6
5	65,526	2452.3	− 2502	−49.7	× 81 / 293	−13.7
6	65,529	2482.1	− 2531	−48.9	× 78 / 293	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,755	2385.2	− 2432	−46.8	× 66 / 276	−11.2
4	60,758	2473.6	− 2473	0.6	× 65 / 276	0.1
5	60,760	2472.7	− 2502	−29.3	× 69 / 276	−7.3
6	60,761	2518.2	− 2531	−12.8	× 76 / 276	−3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,503	2375.9	− 2432	−56.1	× 59 / 258	−12.8
4	62,505	2445.5	− 2473	−27.5	× 65 / 258	−6.9
5	62,507	2495.3	− 2502	−6.7	× 68 / 258	−1.8
6	62,510	2497.8	− 2531	−33.2	× 66 / 258	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,582	2413.4	− 2432	−18.6	× 72 / 262	−5.1
4	62,584	2437.7	− 2473	−35.3	× 56 / 262	−7.5
5	62,586	2494.1	− 2502	−7.9	× 62 / 262	−1.9
6	62,588	2501.9	− 2531	−29.1	× 72 / 262	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,854	2400.8	− 2432	−31.2	× 71 / 251	−8.8
4	62,855	2456.7	− 2473	−16.3	× 68 / 251	−4.4
5	62,856	2488.5	− 2502	−13.5	× 52 / 251	−2.8
6	62,857	2489.1	− 2531	−41.9	× 60 / 251	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,913	2349.5	− 2432	−82.5	× 70 / 367	−15.7
4	62,914	2420.9	− 2473	−52.1	× 89 / 367	−12.6
5	62,915	2468.7	− 2502	−33.3	× 105 / 367	−9.5
6	62,916	2499.9	− 2531	−31.1	× 103 / 367	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,865	2349.5	− 2432	−82.5	× 56 / 238	−19.4
4	62,866	2432.6	− 2473	−40.4	× 65 / 238	−11
5	62,867	2458.8	− 2502	−43.2	× 57 / 238	−10.3
6	62,868	2507.9	− 2531	−23.1	× 60 / 238	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,820	2371.0	− 2432	−61	× 40 / 203	−12
4	62,821	2414.3	− 2473	−58.7	× 52 / 203	−15
5	62,822	2490.8	− 2502	−11.2	× 60 / 203	−3.3
6	62,823	2519.7	− 2531	−11.3	× 51 / 203	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,589	2380.5	− 2432	−51.5	× 41 / 182	−11.6
4	62,590	2425.5	− 2473	−47.5	× 34 / 182	−8.9
5	62,591	2473.4	− 2502	−28.6	× 51 / 182	−8
6	62,592	2533.6	− 2531	2.6	× 56 / 182	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −22, −30, −23, −26, −47, −47, −33, −28 → −33.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 20 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 9.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.8 × 2.66 = 26.1. Upper limit −7, lower limit −59.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.