El Mirage: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,288	2347.7	− 2432	−84.3	× 11 / 66	−14.1
4	64,291	2416.4	− 2473	−56.6	× 12 / 66	−10.3
5	64,292	2437.1	− 2502	−64.9	× 15 / 66	−14.8
6	64,295	2471.9	− 2531	−59.1	× 13 / 66	−11.6
7	64,296	2499.3	− 2552	−52.7	× 15 / 66	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,629	2359.1	− 2432	−72.9	× 16 / 93	−12.5
4	59,631	2399.7	− 2473	−73.3	× 14 / 93	−11
5	59,633	2409.0	− 2502	−93	× 15 / 93	−15
6	59,636	2439.4	− 2531	−91.6	× 16 / 93	−15.8
7	59,637	2463.8	− 2552	−88.2	× 14 / 93	−13.3
8	59,639	2482.1	− 2567	−84.9	× 18 / 93	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,365	2353.3	− 2432	−78.7	× 15 / 77	−15.3
4	61,367	2406.4	− 2473	−66.6	× 20 / 77	−17.3
5	61,368	2422.2	− 2502	−79.8	× 13 / 77	−13.5
7	61,373	2455.9	− 2552	−96.1	× 14 / 77	−17.5
8	61,374	2534.8	− 2567	−32.2	× 15 / 77	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,461	2316.1	− 2432	−115.9	× 19 / 83	−26.5
4	61,463	2366.4	− 2473	−106.6	× 16 / 83	−20.5
5	61,465	2391.9	− 2502	−110.1	× 18 / 83	−23.9
7	61,469	2464.3	− 2552	−87.7	× 14 / 83	−14.8
8	61,471	2460.1	− 2567	−106.9	× 16 / 83	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,714	2318.9	− 2432	−113.1	× 17 / 84	−22.9
4	61,715	2320.4	− 2473	−152.6	× 21 / 84	−38.2
5	61,716	2421.6	− 2502	−80.4	× 16 / 84	−15.3
6	61,717	2394.2	− 2531	−136.8	× 17 / 84	−27.7
8	61,719	2485.7	− 2567	−81.3	× 13 / 84	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	61,812	2339.3	− 2473	−133.7	× 18 / 85	−28.3
5	61,813	2370.3	− 2502	−131.7	× 17 / 85	−26.3
6	61,814	2407.7	− 2531	−123.3	× 20 / 85	−29
7	61,815	2417.9	− 2552	−134.1	× 13 / 85	−20.5
8	61,816	2458.1	− 2567	−108.9	× 17 / 85	−21.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,755	2306.9	− 2432	−125.1	× 13 / 81	−20.1
5	61,757	2412.2	− 2502	−89.8	× 17 / 81	−18.8
6	61,758	2406.7	− 2531	−124.3	× 20 / 81	−30.7
7	61,759	2411.5	− 2552	−140.5	× 17 / 81	−29.5
8	61,760	2474.5	− 2567	−92.5	× 14 / 81	−16
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,706	2288.8	− 2432	−143.2	× 19 / 65	−41.9
4	61,707	2344.8	− 2473	−128.2	× 12 / 65	−23.7
6	61,709	2444.8	− 2531	−86.2	× 19 / 65	−25.2
7	61,710	2421.6	− 2552	−130.4	× 15 / 65	−30.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−121

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,469	2341.2	− 2432	−90.8	× 17 / 86	−17.9
4	61,470	2345.1	− 2473	−127.9	× 19 / 86	−28.3
5	61,471	2394.5	− 2502	−107.5	× 16 / 86	−20
7	61,473	2501.5	− 2552	−50.5	× 22 / 86	−12.9
8	61,474	2450.7	− 2567	−116.3	× 12 / 86	−16.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −84, −70, −106, −117, −126, −115, −121, −95 → −99.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 36 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 9 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 26 → average 16.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.8 × 2.66 = 44.7. Upper limit −55, lower limit −144.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.