Hubert H. Bancroft Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,598	2372.0	− 2432	−60	× 67 / 327	−12.3
4	61,600	2432.0	− 2473	−41	× 105 / 327	−13.2
5	61,602	2462.5	− 2502	−39.5	× 69 / 327	−8.3
6	61,604	2505.0	− 2531	−26	× 86 / 327	−6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,160	2352.0	− 2432	−80	× 79 / 297	−21.3
4	57,161	2454.7	− 2473	−18.3	× 66 / 297	−4.1
5	57,163	2478.4	− 2502	−23.6	× 82 / 297	−6.5
6	57,165	2485.1	− 2531	−45.9	× 70 / 297	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,834	2376.9	− 2432	−55.1	× 59 / 266	−12.2
4	58,836	2431.4	− 2473	−41.6	× 73 / 266	−11.4
5	58,839	2481.2	− 2502	−20.8	× 58 / 266	−4.5
6	58,841	2510.9	− 2531	−20.1	× 76 / 266	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,949	2401.5	− 2432	−30.5	× 58 / 241	−7.3
4	58,952	2435.6	− 2473	−37.4	× 55 / 241	−8.5
5	58,953	2454.6	− 2502	−47.4	× 74 / 241	−14.6
6	58,955	2512.3	− 2531	−18.7	× 54 / 241	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,200	2418.4	− 2432	−13.6	× 53 / 226	−3.2
4	59,201	2463.6	− 2473	−9.4	× 51 / 226	−2.1
5	59,202	2472.3	− 2502	−29.7	× 51 / 226	−6.7
6	59,203	2513.5	− 2531	−17.5	× 71 / 226	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,283	2374.4	− 2432	−57.6	× 50 / 220	−13.1
4	59,284	2402.0	− 2473	−71	× 42 / 220	−13.6
5	59,285	2482.3	− 2502	−19.7	× 68 / 220	−6.1
6	59,286	2509.8	− 2531	−21.2	× 60 / 220	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,241	2368.4	− 2432	−63.6	× 58 / 220	−16.8
4	59,242	2412.8	− 2473	−60.2	× 51 / 220	−14
5	59,243	2457.2	− 2502	−44.8	× 43 / 220	−8.8
6	59,244	2527.3	− 2531	−3.7	× 68 / 220	−1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,172	2365.4	− 2432	−66.6	× 55 / 202	−18.1
4	59,173	2410.2	− 2473	−62.8	× 63 / 202	−19.6
5	59,174	2471.7	− 2502	−30.3	× 45 / 202	−6.8
6	59,175	2493.7	− 2531	−37.3	× 39 / 202	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,929	2386.0	− 2432	−46	× 68 / 227	−13.8
4	58,930	2437.7	− 2473	−35.3	× 55 / 227	−8.6
5	58,931	2467.2	− 2502	−34.8	× 59 / 227	−9
6	58,932	2517.3	− 2531	−13.7	× 45 / 227	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −41, −43, −34, −35, −18, −39, −41, −52, −34 → −37.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 17 · 2019→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 18 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −10.5, lower limit −64.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.