John Ehrhardt Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,386	2419.6	− 2432	−12.4	× 128 / 557	−2.8
4	60,389	2448.3	− 2473	−24.7	× 146 / 557	−6.5
5	60,390	2469.4	− 2502	−32.6	× 140 / 557	−8.2
6	60,393	2513.7	− 2531	−17.3	× 143 / 557	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,084	2422.1	− 2432	−9.9	× 121 / 539	−2.2
4	56,086	2463.8	− 2473	−9.2	× 135 / 539	−2.3
5	56,088	2475.6	− 2502	−26.4	× 146 / 539	−7.2
6	56,089	2527.8	− 2531	−3.2	× 137 / 539	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,716	2446.2	− 2432	14.2	× 116 / 508	3.2
4	57,719	2466.4	− 2473	−6.6	× 119 / 508	−1.5
5	57,720	2463.7	− 2502	−38.3	× 134 / 508	−10.1
6	57,723	2511.0	− 2531	−20	× 139 / 508	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,852	2458.3	− 2432	26.3	× 112 / 496	5.9
4	57,853	2458.4	− 2473	−14.6	× 123 / 496	−3.6
5	57,856	2501.9	− 2502	−0.1	× 125 / 496	0
6	57,857	2509.0	− 2531	−22	× 136 / 496	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,102	2444.6	− 2432	12.6	× 124 / 485	3.2
4	58,103	2466.9	− 2473	−6.1	× 110 / 485	−1.4
5	58,104	2507.7	− 2502	5.7	× 123 / 485	1.4
6	58,105	2531.8	− 2531	0.8	× 128 / 485	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,789	2411.0	− 2432	−21	× 101 / 422	−5
4	56,790	2449.3	− 2473	−23.7	× 92 / 422	−5.2
5	56,791	2495.3	− 2502	−6.7	× 123 / 422	−2
6	56,792	2523.1	− 2531	−7.9	× 106 / 422	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,143	2432.9	− 2432	0.9	× 117 / 432	0.2
4	58,144	2448.6	− 2473	−24.4	× 99 / 432	−5.6
5	58,145	2483.0	− 2502	−19	× 91 / 432	−4
6	58,146	2523.9	− 2531	−7.1	× 125 / 432	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,117	2459.0	− 2432	27	× 98 / 411	6.4
4	58,118	2454.1	− 2473	−18.9	× 111 / 411	−5.1
5	58,119	2475.5	− 2502	−26.5	× 100 / 411	−6.4
6	58,120	2499.5	− 2531	−31.5	× 102 / 411	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,014	2446.7	− 2432	14.7	× 108 / 424	3.7
4	58,015	2477.0	− 2473	4	× 106 / 424	1
5	58,016	2501.8	− 2502	−0.2	× 103 / 424	0
6	58,017	2517.9	− 2531	−13.1	× 107 / 424	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,773	2428.3	− 2432	−3.7	× 118 / 431	−1
4	57,774	2473.3	− 2473	0.3	× 99 / 431	0.1
5	57,775	2513.5	− 2502	11.5	× 112 / 431	3
6	57,776	2536.1	− 2531	5.1	× 102 / 431	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −22, −12, −14, −4, 3, −14, −11, −13, 1, 3 → −8.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 7.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.4 × 2.66 = 19.7. Upper limit 11.4, lower limit −28.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.