Cyril Spinelli Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,863	2392.5	− 2432	−39.5	× 40 / 184	−8.6
4	62,864	2460.9	− 2473	−12.1	× 41 / 184	−2.7
5	62,867	2474.4	− 2502	−27.6	× 49 / 184	−7.4
6	62,868	2497.4	− 2531	−33.6	× 54 / 184	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,316	2410.2	− 2432	−21.8	× 35 / 177	−4.3
4	58,317	2434.9	− 2473	−38.1	× 39 / 177	−8.4
5	58,319	2469.1	− 2502	−32.9	× 46 / 177	−8.6
6	58,322	2514.9	− 2531	−16.1	× 57 / 177	−5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,003	2442.8	− 2432	10.8	× 35 / 147	2.6
4	60,004	2454.8	− 2473	−18.2	× 28 / 147	−3.5
5	60,006	2479.4	− 2502	−22.6	× 36 / 147	−5.5
6	60,008	2548.2	− 2531	17.2	× 48 / 147	5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,118	2419.4	− 2432	−12.6	× 28 / 132	−2.7
4	60,120	2483.0	− 2473	10	× 32 / 132	2.4
5	60,122	2459.7	− 2502	−42.3	× 36 / 132	−11.5
6	60,123	2521.2	− 2531	−9.8	× 36 / 132	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,360	2408.4	− 2432	−23.6	× 21 / 124	−4
4	60,361	2474.7	− 2473	1.7	× 29 / 124	0.4
5	60,362	2470.4	− 2502	−31.6	× 40 / 124	−10.2
6	60,363	2523.9	− 2531	−7.1	× 34 / 124	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,430	2401.6	− 2432	−30.4	× 36 / 124	−8.8
4	60,431	2475.4	− 2473	2.4	× 34 / 124	0.7
5	60,432	2494.7	− 2502	−7.3	× 29 / 124	−1.7
6	60,433	2492.6	− 2531	−38.4	× 25 / 124	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,381	2401.6	− 2432	−30.4	× 52 / 155	−10.2
4	60,382	2422.3	− 2473	−50.7	× 33 / 155	−10.8
5	60,383	2472.4	− 2502	−29.6	× 35 / 155	−6.7
6	60,384	2512.8	− 2531	−18.2	× 35 / 155	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,324	2358.2	− 2432	−73.8	× 40 / 160	−18.5
4	60,325	2433.8	− 2473	−39.2	× 54 / 160	−13.2
5	60,326	2417.3	− 2502	−84.7	× 33 / 160	−17.5
6	60,327	2532.2	− 2531	1.2	× 33 / 160	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,083	2395.3	− 2432	−36.7	× 38 / 162	−8.6
4	60,084	2373.6	− 2473	−99.4	× 43 / 162	−26.4
5	60,085	2448.6	− 2502	−53.4	× 50 / 162	−16.5
6	60,086	2472.2	− 2531	−58.8	× 31 / 162	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −28, −26, −1, −14, −16, −18, −32, −49, −63 → −27.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 25 · 2017→2018: 13 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 17 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 11.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.1 × 2.66 = 29.5. Upper limit 2.1, lower limit −56.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.