Arthur S. Dudley Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,852	2384.2	− 2432	−47.8	× 99 / 393	−12
4	62,855	2443.7	− 2473	−29.3	× 95 / 393	−7.1
5	62,856	2496.0	− 2502	−6	× 108 / 393	−1.6
6	62,859	2516.5	− 2531	−14.5	× 91 / 393	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,306	2410.6	− 2432	−21.4	× 91 / 402	−4.8
4	58,307	2444.8	− 2473	−28.2	× 98 / 402	−6.9
5	58,309	2470.2	− 2502	−31.8	× 93 / 402	−7.4
6	58,312	2528.2	− 2531	−2.8	× 120 / 402	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,993	2409.2	− 2432	−22.8	× 106 / 396	−6.1
4	59,994	2450.9	− 2473	−22.1	× 99 / 396	−5.5
5	59,996	2495.8	− 2502	−6.2	× 98 / 396	−1.5
6	59,999	2520.2	− 2531	−10.8	× 93 / 396	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,108	2399.1	− 2432	−32.9	× 95 / 387	−8.1
4	60,109	2450.6	− 2473	−22.4	× 97 / 387	−5.6
5	60,112	2478.0	− 2502	−24	× 96 / 387	−6
6	60,113	2521.3	− 2531	−9.7	× 99 / 387	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,350	2400.0	− 2432	−32	× 103 / 375	−8.8
4	60,351	2432.8	− 2473	−40.2	× 93 / 375	−10
5	60,352	2479.6	− 2502	−22.4	× 90 / 375	−5.4
6	60,353	2501.0	− 2531	−30	× 89 / 375	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,420	2344.2	− 2432	−87.8	× 89 / 302	−25.9
4	60,421	2390.1	− 2473	−82.9	× 83 / 302	−22.8
5	60,422	2416.9	− 2502	−85.1	× 48 / 302	−13.5
6	60,423	2510.3	− 2531	−20.7	× 82 / 302	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,371	2351.9	− 2432	−80.1	× 75 / 336	−17.9
4	60,372	2372.2	− 2473	−100.8	× 86 / 336	−25.8
5	60,373	2425.1	− 2502	−76.9	× 94 / 336	−21.5
6	60,374	2481.1	− 2531	−49.9	× 81 / 336	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,314	2359.5	− 2432	−72.5	× 60 / 292	−14.9
4	60,315	2400.8	− 2473	−72.2	× 72 / 292	−17.8
5	60,316	2394.3	− 2502	−107.7	× 79 / 292	−29.1
6	60,317	2485.0	− 2531	−46	× 81 / 292	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,073	2381.0	− 2432	−51	× 69 / 241	−14.6
4	60,074	2373.2	− 2473	−99.8	× 64 / 241	−26.5
5	60,075	2428.1	− 2502	−73.9	× 50 / 241	−15.3
6	60,076	2472.3	− 2531	−58.7	× 58 / 241	−14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −24, −20, −16, −22, −31, −68, −77, −75, −71 → −44.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 37 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 9.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.4 × 2.66 = 25. Upper limit −19.9, lower limit −69.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.