William Howard Taft Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,381	2408.2	− 2432	−23.8	× 100 / 393	−6.1
4	58,383	2422.8	− 2473	−50.2	× 93 / 393	−11.9
5	58,385	2445.6	− 2502	−56.4	× 104 / 393	−14.9
6	58,387	2502.6	− 2531	−28.4	× 96 / 393	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,203	2440.5	− 2432	8.5	× 106 / 406	2.2
4	54,206	2429.8	− 2473	−43.2	× 98 / 406	−10.4
5	54,207	2469.8	− 2502	−32.2	× 92 / 406	−7.3
6	54,209	2501.1	− 2531	−29.9	× 110 / 406	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,783	2412.0	− 2432	−20	× 87 / 392	−4.4
4	55,785	2438.6	− 2473	−34.4	× 108 / 392	−9.5
5	55,787	2477.0	− 2502	−25	× 93 / 392	−5.9
6	55,789	2523.8	− 2531	−7.2	× 104 / 392	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,879	2430.7	− 2432	−1.3	× 93 / 384	−0.3
4	55,881	2440.6	− 2473	−32.4	× 83 / 384	−7
5	55,883	2474.6	− 2502	−27.4	× 113 / 384	−8.1
6	55,885	2529.7	− 2531	−1.3	× 95 / 384	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,134	2414.2	− 2432	−17.8	× 88 / 381	−4.1
4	56,135	2437.5	− 2473	−35.5	× 95 / 381	−8.9
5	56,136	2489.2	− 2502	−12.8	× 90 / 381	−3
6	56,137	2505.3	− 2531	−25.7	× 108 / 381	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,198	2387.5	− 2432	−44.5	× 81 / 315	−11.4
4	56,199	2431.5	− 2473	−41.5	× 71 / 315	−9.4
5	56,200	2485.0	− 2502	−17	× 75 / 315	−4
6	56,201	2508.5	− 2531	−22.5	× 88 / 315	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,147	2389.0	− 2432	−43	× 75 / 319	−10.1
4	56,148	2421.5	− 2473	−51.5	× 86 / 319	−13.9
5	56,149	2476.7	− 2502	−25.3	× 75 / 319	−5.9
6	56,150	2486.0	− 2531	−45	× 83 / 319	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,023	2411.3	− 2432	−20.7	× 96 / 330	−6
4	56,024	2432.8	− 2473	−40.2	× 74 / 330	−9
5	56,025	2470.7	− 2502	−31.3	× 83 / 330	−7.9
6	56,026	2508.4	− 2531	−22.6	× 77 / 330	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,787	2402.0	− 2432	−30	× 98 / 357	−8.2
4	55,788	2464.4	− 2473	−8.6	× 96 / 357	−2.3
5	55,789	2467.3	− 2502	−34.7	× 81 / 357	−7.9
6	55,790	2505.0	− 2531	−26	× 82 / 357	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −40, −24, −22, −16, −23, −31, −42, −28, −24 → −27.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 8.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.5 × 2.66 = 22.6. Upper limit −5.2, lower limit −50.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.