Manuel Esqueda Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	51,693	2357.7	− 2432	−74.3	× 171 / 855	−14.9
4	51,695	2406.2	− 2473	−66.8	× 148 / 855	−11.6
5	51,697	2438.7	− 2502	−63.3	× 150 / 855	−11.1
6	51,699	2471.1	− 2531	−59.9	× 121 / 855	−8.5
7	51,701	2486.6	− 2552	−65.4	× 132 / 855	−10.1
8	51,703	2516.8	− 2567	−50.2	× 133 / 855	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,999	2377.3	− 2432	−54.7	× 126 / 801	−8.6
4	48,001	2398.1	− 2473	−74.9	× 162 / 801	−15.1
5	48,004	2436.8	− 2502	−65.2	× 153 / 801	−12.5
6	48,005	2466.1	− 2531	−64.9	× 123 / 801	−10
7	48,008	2470.9	− 2552	−81.1	× 114 / 801	−11.5
8	48,010	2515.2	− 2567	−51.8	× 123 / 801	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,308	2363.9	− 2432	−68.1	× 147 / 788	−12.7
4	49,309	2401.5	− 2473	−71.5	× 121 / 788	−11
5	49,311	2419.3	− 2502	−82.7	× 167 / 788	−17.5
6	49,313	2457.7	− 2531	−73.3	× 133 / 788	−12.4
7	49,316	2490.7	− 2552	−61.3	× 114 / 788	−8.9
8	49,317	2501.0	− 2567	−66	× 106 / 788	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,321	2371.8	− 2432	−60.2	× 132 / 802	−9.9
4	49,324	2400.4	− 2473	−72.6	× 157 / 802	−14.2
5	49,325	2446.9	− 2502	−55.1	× 134 / 802	−9.2
6	49,328	2435.5	− 2531	−95.5	× 140 / 802	−16.7
7	49,329	2494.0	− 2552	−58	× 122 / 802	−8.8
8	49,332	2507.2	− 2567	−59.8	× 117 / 802	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,516	2384.4	− 2432	−47.6	× 112 / 755	−7.1
4	49,517	2411.5	− 2473	−61.5	× 120 / 755	−9.8
5	49,518	2464.4	− 2502	−37.6	× 150 / 755	−7.5
6	49,519	2470.6	− 2531	−60.4	× 123 / 755	−9.8
7	49,520	2477.9	− 2552	−74.1	× 130 / 755	−12.8
8	49,521	2510.4	− 2567	−56.6	× 120 / 755	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,440	2369.5	− 2432	−62.5	× 94 / 654	−9
4	49,441	2422.1	− 2473	−50.9	× 88 / 654	−6.8
5	49,442	2456.7	− 2502	−45.3	× 108 / 654	−7.5
6	49,443	2452.8	− 2531	−78.2	× 125 / 654	−14.9
7	49,444	2461.8	− 2552	−90.2	× 116 / 654	−16
8	49,445	2495.2	− 2567	−71.8	× 123 / 654	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,402	2375.7	− 2432	−56.3	× 95 / 619	−8.6
4	49,403	2411.6	− 2473	−61.4	× 103 / 619	−10.2
5	49,404	2484.2	− 2502	−17.8	× 86 / 619	−2.5
6	49,405	2446.1	− 2531	−84.9	× 123 / 619	−16.9
7	49,406	2478.6	− 2552	−73.4	× 109 / 619	−12.9
8	49,407	2474.9	− 2567	−92.1	× 103 / 619	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,253	2367.7	− 2432	−64.3	× 71 / 607	−7.5
4	49,254	2389.4	− 2473	−83.6	× 105 / 607	−14.5
5	49,255	2429.8	− 2502	−72.2	× 106 / 607	−12.6
6	49,256	2468.4	− 2531	−62.6	× 107 / 607	−11
7	49,257	2483.2	− 2552	−68.8	× 112 / 607	−12.7
8	49,258	2479.2	− 2567	−87.8	× 106 / 607	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,009	2372.3	− 2432	−59.7	× 74 / 553	−8
4	49,010	2418.2	− 2473	−54.8	× 70 / 553	−6.9
5	49,011	2448.6	− 2502	−53.4	× 91 / 553	−8.8
6	49,012	2440.5	− 2531	−90.5	× 112 / 553	−18.3
7	49,013	2504.8	− 2552	−47.2	× 100 / 553	−8.5
8	49,014	2498.3	− 2567	−68.7	× 106 / 553	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −64, −66, −71, −68, −56, −68, −66, −74, −64 → −66.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 10 → average 6.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.8 × 2.66 = 18.1. Upper limit −48.2, lower limit −84.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.