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The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	35,507	2301.4	− 2473	−171.6	× 17 / 76	−38.4
5	35,510	2342.2	− 2502	−159.8	× 13 / 76	−27.3
6	35,511	2384.5	− 2531	−146.5	× 17 / 76	−32.8
7	35,514	2390.4	− 2552	−161.6	× 17 / 76	−36.1
8	35,515	2400.6	− 2567	−166.4	× 12 / 76	−26.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−161

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	33,150	2333.6	− 2502	−168.4	× 21 / 66	−53.6
6	33,152	2354.6	− 2531	−176.4	× 13 / 66	−34.7
7	33,153	2415.9	− 2552	−136.1	× 22 / 66	−45.4
8	33,156	2390.2	− 2567	−176.8	× 10 / 66	−26.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−160

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	33,722	2315.5	− 2473	−157.5	× 11 / 72	−24.1
5	33,723	2358.0	− 2502	−144	× 11 / 72	−22
6	33,726	2359.3	− 2531	−171.7	× 19 / 72	−45.3
7	33,727	2381.8	− 2552	−170.2	× 12 / 72	−28.4
8	33,729	2420.0	− 2567	−147	× 19 / 72	−38.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−159

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	33,747	2317.7	− 2473	−155.3	× 14 / 30	−72.5
7	33,753	2406.6	− 2552	−145.4	× 16 / 30	−77.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−150

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,917	2279.2	− 2432	−152.8	× 16 / 73	−33.5
4	33,918	2342.5	− 2473	−130.5	× 12 / 73	−21.5
5	33,919	2366.1	− 2502	−135.9	× 14 / 73	−26.1
7	33,921	2381.0	− 2552	−171	× 15 / 73	−35.1
8	33,922	2425.2	− 2567	−141.8	× 16 / 73	−31.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−147

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	33,830	2337.6	− 2502	−164.4	× 18 / 52	−56.9
6	33,831	2344.3	− 2531	−186.7	× 12 / 52	−43.1
7	33,832	2407.3	− 2552	−144.7	× 11 / 52	−30.6
8	33,833	2388.7	− 2567	−178.3	× 11 / 52	−37.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−168

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	33,880	2366.4	− 2531	−164.6	× 18 / 30	−98.8
7	33,881	2398.4	− 2552	−153.6	× 12 / 30	−61.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−160

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	33,739	2372.9	− 2552	−179.1	× 17 / 33	−92.3
8	33,740	2390.3	− 2567	−176.7	× 16 / 33	−85.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−178

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	33,599	2380.5	− 2531	−150.5	× 17 / 34	−75.3
8	33,601	2418.8	− 2567	−148.2	× 17 / 34	−74.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−149

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −161, −160, −159, −150, −147, −168, −160, −178, −149 → −159.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 18 · 2024→2025: 29 → average 11.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.3 × 2.66 = 30.1. Upper limit −129, lower limit −189.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.