Jordan Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,333	2420.3	− 2432	−11.7	× 55 / 233	−2.8
4	34,335	2453.6	− 2473	−19.4	× 49 / 233	−4.1
5	34,337	2519.8	− 2502	17.8	× 60 / 233	4.6
6	34,339	2508.1	− 2531	−22.9	× 69 / 233	−6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,109	2424.3	− 2432	−7.7	× 62 / 223	−2.1
4	32,112	2485.5	− 2473	12.5	× 50 / 223	2.8
5	32,114	2515.6	− 2502	13.6	× 47 / 223	2.9
6	32,115	2571.2	− 2531	40.2	× 64 / 223	11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,645	2431.2	− 2432	−0.8	× 49 / 212	−0.2
4	32,647	2475.4	− 2473	2.4	× 61 / 212	0.7
5	32,649	2495.4	− 2502	−6.6	× 52 / 212	−1.6
6	32,651	2537.4	− 2531	6.4	× 50 / 212	1.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,663	2452.1	− 2432	20.1	× 51 / 234	4.4
4	32,665	2488.9	− 2473	15.9	× 55 / 234	3.7
5	32,667	2493.7	− 2502	−8.3	× 67 / 234	−2.4
6	32,669	2536.1	− 2531	5.1	× 61 / 234	1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,839	2432.8	− 2432	0.8	× 43 / 223	0.2
4	32,840	2497.1	− 2473	24.1	× 54 / 223	5.8
5	32,841	2521.2	− 2502	19.2	× 59 / 223	5.1
6	32,842	2540.7	− 2531	9.7	× 67 / 223	2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,044	2400.0	− 2432	−32	× 56 / 227	−7.9
4	32,045	2438.6	− 2473	−34.4	× 56 / 227	−8.5
5	32,046	2496.4	− 2502	−5.6	× 48 / 227	−1.2
6	32,047	2527.9	− 2531	−3.1	× 67 / 227	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −9, 15, 0, 7, 14, −18 → 1.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 24 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 32 → average 17
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 17 × 2.66 = 45.2. Upper limit 46.7, lower limit −43.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21.