Ada S. Nelson Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,262	2382.0	− 2432	−50	× 61 / 231	−13.2
4	34,264	2436.3	− 2473	−36.7	× 60 / 231	−9.5
5	34,266	2471.9	− 2502	−30.1	× 57 / 231	−7.4
6	34,268	2496.8	− 2531	−34.2	× 53 / 231	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,043	2414.9	− 2432	−17.1	× 63 / 239	−4.5
4	32,046	2450.3	− 2473	−22.7	× 62 / 239	−5.9
5	32,048	2498.8	− 2502	−3.2	× 61 / 239	−0.8
6	32,049	2519.7	− 2531	−11.3	× 53 / 239	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,579	2415.3	− 2432	−16.7	× 46 / 232	−3.3
4	32,582	2460.3	− 2473	−12.7	× 64 / 232	−3.5
5	32,583	2486.1	− 2502	−15.9	× 61 / 232	−4.2
6	32,586	2560.4	− 2531	29.4	× 61 / 232	7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,596	2408.1	− 2432	−23.9	× 46 / 217	−5.1
4	32,597	2468.5	− 2473	−4.5	× 49 / 217	−1
5	32,600	2497.8	− 2502	−4.2	× 63 / 217	−1.2
6	32,601	2524.1	− 2531	−6.9	× 59 / 217	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,771	2432.5	− 2432	0.5	× 50 / 208	0.1
4	32,772	2459.4	− 2473	−13.6	× 47 / 208	−3.1
5	32,773	2492.4	− 2502	−9.6	× 50 / 208	−2.3
6	32,774	2549.0	− 2531	18	× 61 / 208	5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,982	2409.6	− 2432	−22.4	× 53 / 192	−6.2
4	31,983	2440.0	− 2473	−33	× 52 / 192	−8.9
5	31,984	2467.4	− 2502	−34.6	× 45 / 192	−8.1
6	31,985	2497.5	− 2531	−33.5	× 42 / 192	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,802	2423.3	− 2432	−8.7	× 40 / 197	−1.8
4	32,803	2493.7	− 2473	20.7	× 52 / 197	5.5
5	32,804	2513.3	− 2502	11.3	× 53 / 197	3
6	32,805	2540.3	− 2531	9.3	× 52 / 197	2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,857	2415.5	− 2432	−16.5	× 51 / 198	−4.3
4	32,858	2493.1	− 2473	20.1	× 42 / 198	4.3
5	32,859	2511.6	− 2502	9.6	× 52 / 198	2.5
6	32,860	2569.4	− 2531	38.4	× 53 / 198	10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,725	2420.9	− 2432	−11.1	× 47 / 196	−2.7
4	32,726	2468.4	− 2473	−4.6	× 53 / 196	−1.2
5	32,727	2520.9	− 2502	18.9	× 41 / 196	4
6	32,728	2557.1	− 2531	26.1	× 55 / 196	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,580	2430.3	− 2432	−1.7	× 42 / 185	−0.4
4	32,581	2469.3	− 2473	−3.7	× 51 / 185	−1
5	32,582	2518.7	− 2502	16.7	× 52 / 185	4.7
6	32,583	2542.6	− 2531	11.6	× 40 / 185	2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −38, −14, −3, −9, 0, −31, 9, 13, 7, 6 → −6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 24 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2021: 31 · 2021→2022: 40 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 14.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.7 × 2.66 = 39.1. Upper limit 33.1, lower limit −45.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.