Holmes Avenue Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,755	2336.8	− 2432	−95.2	× 53 / 169	−29.9
4	30,757	2399.8	− 2473	−73.2	× 37 / 169	−16
5	30,759	2403.7	− 2502	−98.3	× 45 / 169	−26.2
6	30,761	2468.1	− 2531	−62.9	× 34 / 169	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,973	2356.8	− 2432	−75.2	× 37 / 155	−18
4	28,976	2378.1	− 2473	−94.9	× 51 / 155	−31.2
5	28,978	2459.3	− 2502	−42.7	× 31 / 155	−8.5
6	28,979	2451.8	− 2531	−79.2	× 36 / 155	−18.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,538	2340.7	− 2432	−91.3	× 39 / 131	−27.2
4	29,540	2387.6	− 2473	−85.4	× 30 / 131	−19.6
5	29,543	2434.4	− 2502	−67.6	× 42 / 131	−21.7
6	29,544	2474.3	− 2531	−56.7	× 20 / 131	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,587	2367.6	− 2432	−64.4	× 23 / 122	−12.1
4	29,589	2392.6	− 2473	−80.4	× 33 / 122	−21.7
5	29,591	2420.1	− 2502	−81.9	× 31 / 122	−20.8
6	29,593	2453.6	− 2531	−77.4	× 35 / 122	−22.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,759	2342.4	− 2432	−89.6	× 45 / 122	−33
4	29,760	2397.4	− 2473	−75.6	× 23 / 122	−14.3
5	29,761	2432.5	− 2502	−69.5	× 33 / 122	−18.8
6	29,762	2446.6	− 2531	−84.4	× 21 / 122	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,794	2299.3	− 2432	−132.7	× 24 / 107	−29.8
4	29,795	2330.7	− 2473	−142.3	× 30 / 107	−39.9
5	29,796	2469.0	− 2502	−33	× 21 / 107	−6.5
6	29,797	2419.7	− 2531	−111.3	× 32 / 107	−33.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,851	2308.3	− 2432	−123.7	× 21 / 89	−29.2
4	29,852	2358.5	− 2473	−114.5	× 22 / 89	−28.3
5	29,853	2387.8	− 2502	−114.2	× 28 / 89	−35.9
6	29,854	2459.3	− 2531	−71.7	× 18 / 89	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,717	2306.0	− 2432	−126	× 22 / 80	−34.7
4	29,718	2334.8	− 2473	−138.2	× 20 / 80	−34.6
5	29,719	2419.9	− 2502	−82.1	× 21 / 80	−21.6
6	29,720	2467.4	− 2531	−63.6	× 17 / 80	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,578	2395.9	− 2432	−36.1	× 15 / 63	−8.6
4	29,579	2388.6	− 2473	−84.4	× 14 / 63	−18.8
5	29,580	2410.9	− 2502	−91.1	× 14 / 63	−20.2
6	29,581	2510.7	− 2531	−20.3	× 20 / 63	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −85, −76, −77, −77, −81, −109, −108, −104, −54 → −85.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 28 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 50 → average 12.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.1 × 2.66 = 32.2. Upper limit −53.5, lower limit −117.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.