South Fork Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,976	2350.3	− 2432	−81.7	× 23 / 51	−36.8
4	17,978	2376.1	− 2473	−96.9	× 28 / 51	−53.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,982	2358.7	− 2432	−73.3	× 27 / 156	−12.7
4	16,983	2398.9	− 2473	−74.1	× 24 / 156	−11.4
5	16,985	2412.5	− 2502	−89.5	× 27 / 156	−15.5
6	16,987	2480.9	− 2531	−50.1	× 21 / 156	−6.7
7	16,990	2515.8	− 2552	−36.2	× 31 / 156	−7.2
8	16,992	2571.1	− 2567	4.1	× 26 / 156	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,302	2354.8	− 2432	−77.2	× 29 / 143	−15.7
4	17,303	2447.9	− 2473	−25.1	× 22 / 143	−3.9
5	17,306	2444.5	− 2502	−57.5	× 17 / 143	−6.8
6	17,307	2487.6	− 2531	−43.4	× 27 / 143	−8.2
7	17,309	2559.8	− 2552	7.8	× 20 / 143	1.1
8	17,312	2551.5	− 2567	−15.5	× 28 / 143	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,327	2328.3	− 2432	−103.7	× 28 / 144	−20.2
4	17,329	2431.0	− 2473	−42	× 35 / 144	−10.2
5	17,331	2487.2	− 2502	−14.8	× 23 / 144	−2.4
6	17,333	2531.7	− 2531	0.7	× 16 / 144	0.1
7	17,335	2478.2	− 2552	−73.8	× 21 / 144	−10.8
8	17,337	2612.5	− 2567	45.5	× 21 / 144	6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,464	2398.4	− 2432	−33.6	× 38 / 166	−7.7
4	17,465	2428.5	− 2473	−44.5	× 29 / 166	−7.8
5	17,466	2460.1	− 2502	−41.9	× 38 / 166	−9.6
6	17,467	2514.8	− 2531	−16.2	× 26 / 166	−2.5
7	17,468	2543.0	− 2552	−9	× 14 / 166	−0.8
8	17,469	2539.6	− 2567	−27.4	× 21 / 166	−3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,518	2362.1	− 2432	−69.9	× 29 / 185	−11
4	17,519	2450.2	− 2473	−22.8	× 38 / 185	−4.7
5	17,520	2464.8	− 2502	−37.2	× 21 / 185	−4.2
6	17,521	2510.0	− 2531	−21	× 42 / 185	−4.8
7	17,522	2522.3	− 2552	−29.7	× 25 / 185	−4
8	17,523	2599.1	− 2567	32.1	× 30 / 185	5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,460	2360.1	− 2432	−71.9	× 55 / 223	−17.7
4	17,461	2444.2	− 2473	−28.8	× 29 / 223	−3.7
5	17,462	2476.9	− 2502	−25.1	× 43 / 223	−4.8
6	17,463	2481.4	− 2531	−49.6	× 29 / 223	−6.5
7	17,464	2547.5	− 2552	−4.5	× 44 / 223	−0.9
8	17,465	2558.7	− 2567	−8.3	× 23 / 223	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,410	2361.6	− 2432	−70.4	× 38 / 235	−11.4
4	17,411	2435.9	− 2473	−37.1	× 57 / 235	−9
5	17,412	2471.3	− 2502	−30.7	× 28 / 235	−3.7
6	17,413	2534.7	− 2531	3.7	× 41 / 235	0.6
7	17,414	2479.3	− 2552	−72.7	× 30 / 235	−9.3
8	17,415	2563.0	− 2567	−4	× 41 / 235	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,404	2365.6	− 2432	−66.4	× 25 / 234	−7.1
4	17,405	2438.6	− 2473	−34.4	× 42 / 234	−6.2
5	17,406	2466.2	− 2502	−35.8	× 52 / 234	−8
6	17,407	2495.4	− 2531	−35.6	× 34 / 234	−5.2
7	17,408	2553.2	− 2552	1.2	× 51 / 234	0.3
8	17,409	2560.4	− 2567	−6.6	× 30 / 234	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −90, −53, −36, −37, −32, −23, −35, −33, −27 → −40.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 37 · 2016→2017: 17 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 9 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 11.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.1 × 2.66 = 29.5. Upper limit −11.2, lower limit −70.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.