Jefferson Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,736	2371.2	− 2432	−60.8	× 62 / 255	−14.8
4	10,739	2392.4	− 2473	−80.6	× 58 / 255	−18.3
5	10,740	2435.3	− 2502	−66.7	× 63 / 255	−16.5
6	10,743	2459.4	− 2531	−71.6	× 72 / 255	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,754	2380.5	− 2432	−51.5	× 67 / 255	−13.5
4	9,756	2422.8	− 2473	−50.2	× 62 / 255	−12.2
5	9,759	2452.4	− 2502	−49.6	× 62 / 255	−12.1
6	9,761	2504.8	− 2531	−26.2	× 64 / 255	−6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,082	2415.6	− 2432	−16.4	× 59 / 244	−4
4	10,084	2428.6	− 2473	−44.4	× 56 / 244	−10.2
5	10,086	2448.9	− 2502	−53.1	× 72 / 244	−15.7
6	10,089	2473.8	− 2531	−57.2	× 57 / 244	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,100	2403.2	− 2432	−28.8	× 62 / 271	−6.6
4	10,103	2468.0	− 2473	−5	× 66 / 271	−1.2
5	10,104	2474.8	− 2502	−27.2	× 66 / 271	−6.6
6	10,107	2501.0	− 2531	−30	× 77 / 271	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,176	2415.0	− 2432	−17	× 60 / 241	−4.2
4	10,177	2467.1	− 2473	−5.9	× 58 / 241	−1.4
5	10,178	2494.0	− 2502	−8	× 61 / 241	−2
6	10,179	2509.7	− 2531	−21.3	× 62 / 241	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,169	2357.3	− 2432	−74.7	× 62 / 231	−20
4	10,170	2459.5	− 2473	−13.5	× 52 / 231	−3
5	10,171	2500.5	− 2502	−1.5	× 58 / 231	−0.4
6	10,172	2498.6	− 2531	−32.4	× 59 / 231	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,157	2399.0	− 2432	−33	× 65 / 227	−9.4
4	10,158	2461.0	− 2473	−12	× 60 / 227	−3.2
5	10,159	2495.7	− 2502	−6.3	× 47 / 227	−1.3
6	10,160	2525.8	− 2531	−5.2	× 55 / 227	−1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,123	2418.7	− 2432	−13.3	× 60 / 217	−3.7
4	10,124	2478.0	− 2473	5	× 52 / 217	1.2
5	10,125	2505.4	− 2502	3.4	× 57 / 217	0.9
6	10,126	2515.8	− 2531	−15.2	× 48 / 217	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,100	2433.5	− 2432	1.5	× 44 / 194	0.3
4	10,101	2524.8	− 2473	51.8	× 50 / 194	13.4
5	10,102	2476.6	− 2502	−25.4	× 43 / 194	−5.6
6	10,103	2547.5	− 2531	16.5	× 57 / 194	4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −70, −44, −43, −23, −13, −32, −15, −5, 13 → −25.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 26 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 20 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 17 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 18 → average 15.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.1 × 2.66 = 40.2. Upper limit 14.4, lower limit −66.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.