Bullard Talent Project: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,572	2402.8	− 2432	−29.2	× 80 / 536	−4.4
4	10,575	2452.9	− 2473	−20.1	× 97 / 536	−3.6
5	10,576	2517.3	− 2502	15.3	× 95 / 536	2.7
6	10,579	2511.0	− 2531	−20	× 94 / 536	−3.5
7	10,580	2546.3	− 2552	−5.7	× 89 / 536	−0.9
8	10,583	2577.7	− 2567	10.7	× 81 / 536	1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,591	2421.4	− 2432	−10.6	× 70 / 540	−1.4
4	9,593	2451.5	− 2473	−21.5	× 98 / 540	−3.9
5	9,595	2524.0	− 2502	22	× 96 / 540	3.9
6	9,596	2535.6	− 2531	4.6	× 97 / 540	0.8
7	9,598	2547.5	− 2552	−4.5	× 92 / 540	−0.8
8	9,601	2582.4	− 2567	15.4	× 87 / 540	2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,918	2455.0	− 2432	23	× 72 / 541	3.1
4	9,920	2469.4	− 2473	−3.6	× 97 / 541	−0.6
5	9,923	2489.5	− 2502	−12.5	× 99 / 541	−2.3
6	9,924	2545.6	− 2531	14.6	× 96 / 541	2.6
7	9,926	2549.8	− 2552	−2.2	× 93 / 541	−0.4
8	9,928	2567.3	− 2567	0.3	× 84 / 541	0
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,936	2476.1	− 2432	44.1	× 71 / 533	5.9
4	9,939	2500.1	− 2473	27.1	× 95 / 533	4.8
5	9,940	2492.6	− 2502	−9.4	× 98 / 533	−1.7
6	9,943	2534.8	− 2531	3.8	× 98 / 533	0.7
7	9,944	2570.3	− 2552	18.3	× 84 / 533	2.9
8	9,947	2570.3	− 2567	3.3	× 87 / 533	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,012	2455.9	− 2432	23.9	× 69 / 541	3
4	10,013	2484.7	− 2473	11.7	× 98 / 541	2.1
5	10,014	2514.7	− 2502	12.7	× 95 / 541	2.2
6	10,015	2563.0	− 2531	32	× 98 / 541	5.8
7	10,016	2569.3	− 2552	17.3	× 97 / 541	3.1
8	10,017	2577.8	− 2567	10.8	× 84 / 541	1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,005	2446.9	− 2432	14.9	× 68 / 515	2
4	10,006	2450.4	− 2473	−22.6	× 92 / 515	−4
5	10,007	2507.4	− 2502	5.4	× 92 / 515	1
6	10,008	2573.4	− 2531	42.4	× 96 / 515	7.9
7	10,009	2559.8	− 2552	7.8	× 87 / 515	1.3
8	10,010	2581.4	− 2567	14.4	× 80 / 515	2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,993	2440.4	− 2432	8.4	× 71 / 517	1.2
4	9,994	2451.7	− 2473	−21.3	× 93 / 517	−3.8
5	9,995	2462.0	− 2502	−40	× 89 / 517	−6.9
6	9,996	2576.5	− 2531	45.5	× 95 / 517	8.4
7	9,997	2573.7	− 2552	21.7	× 91 / 517	3.8
8	9,998	2524.3	− 2567	−42.7	× 78 / 517	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,959	2442.6	− 2432	10.6	× 67 / 517	1.4
4	9,960	2468.0	− 2473	−5	× 94 / 517	−0.9
5	9,961	2498.6	− 2502	−3.4	× 93 / 517	−0.6
6	9,962	2546.9	− 2531	15.9	× 93 / 517	2.9
7	9,963	2603.2	− 2552	51.2	× 84 / 517	8.3
8	9,964	2575.4	− 2567	8.4	× 86 / 517	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,936	2471.3	− 2432	39.3	× 70 / 510	5.4
4	9,937	2480.1	− 2473	7.1	× 80 / 510	1.1
5	9,938	2515.3	− 2502	13.3	× 91 / 510	2.4
6	9,939	2548.1	− 2531	17.1	× 92 / 510	3.1
7	9,940	2560.6	− 2552	8.6	× 95 / 510	1.6
8	9,941	2571.9	− 2567	4.9	× 82 / 510	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −8, 1, 2, 13, 18, 10, −4, 12, 14 → 6.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 8.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.3 × 2.66 = 22.1. Upper limit 28.5, lower limit −15.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.