Lincoln Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,750	2327.3	− 2432	−104.7	× 72 / 242	−31.2
4	7,753	2396.2	− 2473	−76.8	× 63 / 242	−20
5	7,754	2410.3	− 2502	−91.7	× 50 / 242	−18.9
6	7,757	2420.8	− 2531	−110.2	× 57 / 242	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−96

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,934	2318.7	− 2432	−113.3	× 64 / 229	−31.7
4	6,936	2345.3	− 2473	−127.7	× 65 / 229	−36.2
5	6,938	2419.3	− 2502	−82.7	× 53 / 229	−19.1
6	6,940	2458.7	− 2531	−72.3	× 47 / 229	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,147	2320.1	− 2432	−111.9	× 67 / 234	−32
4	7,148	2358.6	− 2473	−114.4	× 59 / 234	−28.8
5	7,151	2392.3	− 2502	−109.7	× 62 / 234	−29.1
6	7,153	2437.7	− 2531	−93.3	× 46 / 234	−18.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,165	2303.8	− 2432	−128.2	× 66 / 242	−35
4	7,166	2360.2	− 2473	−112.8	× 60 / 242	−28
5	7,169	2398.0	− 2502	−104	× 57 / 242	−24.5
6	7,170	2452.5	− 2531	−78.5	× 59 / 242	−19.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,206	2321.6	− 2432	−110.4	× 62 / 240	−28.5
4	7,207	2348.3	− 2473	−124.7	× 61 / 240	−31.7
5	7,208	2410.2	− 2502	−91.8	× 64 / 240	−24.5
6	7,209	2437.1	− 2531	−93.9	× 53 / 240	−20.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,147	2276.9	− 2432	−155.1	× 44 / 193	−35.4
4	7,148	2326.7	− 2473	−146.3	× 49 / 193	−37.1
5	7,149	2339.4	− 2502	−162.6	× 46 / 193	−38.8
6	7,150	2404.4	− 2531	−126.6	× 54 / 193	−35.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−147

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,135	2260.5	− 2432	−171.5	× 42 / 190	−37.9
4	7,136	2316.0	− 2473	−157	× 49 / 190	−40.5
5	7,137	2338.2	− 2502	−163.8	× 54 / 190	−46.6
6	7,138	2398.7	− 2531	−132.3	× 45 / 190	−31.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−156

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,082	2272.5	− 2432	−159.5	× 36 / 203	−28.3
4	7,083	2305.5	− 2473	−167.5	× 53 / 203	−43.7
5	7,084	2356.1	− 2502	−145.9	× 55 / 203	−39.5
6	7,085	2400.0	− 2531	−131	× 59 / 203	−38.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−150

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,042	2278.0	− 2432	−154	× 40 / 188	−32.8
4	7,043	2351.4	− 2473	−121.6	× 43 / 188	−27.8
5	7,044	2354.2	− 2502	−147.8	× 55 / 188	−43.2
6	7,045	2413.1	− 2531	−117.9	× 50 / 188	−31.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −96, −102, −108, −107, −105, −147, −156, −150, −135 → −122.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 42 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 15 → average 10.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.9 × 2.66 = 29. Upper limit −93.9, lower limit −151.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.