Thermalito Union Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,110	2380.6	− 2432	−51.4	× 161 / 858	−9.6
4	5,113	2398.5	− 2473	−74.5	× 143 / 858	−12.4
5	5,114	2427.9	− 2502	−74.1	× 138 / 858	−11.9
6	5,117	2440.6	− 2531	−90.4	× 139 / 858	−14.6
7	5,118	2471.5	− 2552	−80.5	× 138 / 858	−12.9
8	5,121	2515.3	− 2567	−51.7	× 139 / 858	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,590	2377.6	− 2432	−54.4	× 162 / 894	−9.9
4	4,592	2430.7	− 2473	−42.3	× 169 / 894	−8
5	4,594	2463.2	− 2502	−38.8	× 144 / 894	−6.2
6	4,597	2450.9	− 2531	−80.1	× 142 / 894	−12.7
7	4,598	2488.7	− 2552	−63.3	× 134 / 894	−9.5
8	4,600	2519.8	− 2567	−47.2	× 143 / 894	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,682	2388.5	− 2432	−43.5	× 147 / 895	−7.1
4	4,685	2416.9	− 2473	−56.1	× 162 / 895	−10.2
5	4,687	2466.8	− 2502	−35.2	× 172 / 895	−6.8
6	4,688	2461.3	− 2531	−69.7	× 133 / 895	−10.4
7	4,691	2488.3	− 2552	−63.7	× 150 / 895	−10.7
8	4,692	2490.7	− 2567	−76.3	× 131 / 895	−11.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,670	2388.1	− 2432	−43.9	× 161 / 943	−7.5
4	4,673	2443.8	− 2473	−29.2	× 153 / 943	−4.7
5	4,674	2460.5	− 2502	−41.5	× 171 / 943	−7.5
6	4,677	2486.5	− 2531	−44.5	× 161 / 943	−7.6
7	4,678	2506.0	− 2552	−46	× 151 / 943	−7.4
8	4,681	2526.3	− 2567	−40.7	× 146 / 943	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,692	2382.4	− 2432	−49.6	× 182 / 979	−9.2
4	4,693	2418.8	− 2473	−54.2	× 169 / 979	−9.4
5	4,694	2474.7	− 2502	−27.3	× 158 / 979	−4.4
6	4,695	2472.5	− 2531	−58.5	× 181 / 979	−10.8
7	4,696	2511.6	− 2552	−40.4	× 149 / 979	−6.1
8	4,697	2519.9	− 2567	−47.1	× 140 / 979	−6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,494	2366.8	− 2432	−65.2	× 166 / 903	−12
4	4,495	2406.3	− 2473	−66.7	× 149 / 903	−11
5	4,496	2455.0	− 2502	−47	× 159 / 903	−8.3
6	4,497	2470.2	− 2531	−60.8	× 138 / 903	−9.3
7	4,498	2521.3	− 2552	−30.7	× 136 / 903	−4.6
8	4,499	2509.2	− 2567	−57.8	× 155 / 903	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,571	2377.9	− 2432	−54.1	× 176 / 931	−10.2
4	4,572	2415.3	− 2473	−57.7	× 166 / 931	−10.3
5	4,573	2449.7	− 2502	−52.3	× 148 / 931	−8.3
6	4,574	2463.5	− 2531	−67.5	× 169 / 931	−12.3
7	4,575	2489.4	− 2552	−62.6	× 131 / 931	−8.8
8	4,576	2520.5	− 2567	−46.5	× 141 / 931	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,559	2366.0	− 2432	−66	× 188 / 976	−12.7
4	4,560	2423.5	− 2473	−49.5	× 171 / 976	−8.7
5	4,561	2468.0	− 2502	−34	× 168 / 976	−5.9
6	4,562	2478.4	− 2531	−52.6	× 143 / 976	−7.7
7	4,563	2505.5	− 2552	−46.5	× 162 / 976	−7.7
8	4,564	2514.8	− 2567	−52.2	× 144 / 976	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,518	2371.2	− 2432	−60.8	× 174 / 957	−11.1
4	4,519	2402.1	− 2473	−70.9	× 176 / 957	−13
5	4,520	2452.5	− 2502	−49.5	× 165 / 957	−8.5
6	4,521	2471.4	− 2531	−59.6	× 154 / 957	−9.6
7	4,522	2498.4	− 2552	−53.6	× 140 / 957	−7.8
8	4,523	2524.8	− 2567	−42.2	× 148 / 957	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,472	2385.7	− 2432	−46.3	× 164 / 963	−7.9
4	4,473	2424.4	− 2473	−48.6	× 174 / 963	−8.8
5	4,474	2469.7	− 2502	−32.3	× 165 / 963	−5.5
6	4,475	2481.5	− 2531	−49.5	× 167 / 963	−8.6
7	4,476	2522.5	− 2552	−29.5	× 159 / 963	−4.9
8	4,477	2537.7	− 2567	−29.3	× 134 / 963	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −70, −54, −56, −41, −47, −55, −57, −50, −57, −40 → −52.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 8 · 2021→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 17 → average 8.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.9 × 2.66 = 23.7. Upper limit −29, lower limit −76.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.