Hearthstone School: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,264	2339.0	− 2432	−93	× 27 / 149	−16.9
4	4,267	2395.1	− 2473	−77.9	× 17 / 149	−8.9
5	4,268	2455.8	− 2502	−46.2	× 12 / 149	−3.7
6	4,271	2471.3	− 2531	−59.7	× 20 / 149	−8
7	4,272	2495.5	− 2552	−56.5	× 16 / 149	−6.1
8	4,275	2471.6	− 2567	−95.4	× 17 / 149	−10.9
11	4,276	2603.2	− 2583	20.2	× 40 / 149	5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,768	2359.8	− 2432	−72.2	× 13 / 155	−6.1
4	3,770	2395.1	− 2473	−77.9	× 28 / 155	−14.1
5	3,773	2489.3	− 2502	−12.7	× 17 / 155	−1.4
6	3,775	2476.8	− 2531	−54.2	× 13 / 155	−4.5
7	3,776	2486.5	− 2552	−65.5	× 25 / 155	−10.6
8	3,778	2534.9	− 2567	−32.1	× 19 / 155	−3.9
11	3,780	2571.4	− 2583	−11.6	× 40 / 155	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,858	2364.8	− 2432	−67.2	× 13 / 140	−6.2
4	3,861	2410.3	− 2473	−62.7	× 11 / 140	−4.9
5	3,863	2428.3	− 2502	−73.7	× 21 / 140	−11.1
6	3,864	2468.0	− 2531	−63	× 17 / 140	−7.7
7	3,866	2495.9	− 2552	−56.1	× 16 / 140	−6.4
8	3,868	2507.4	− 2567	−59.6	× 27 / 140	−11.5
11	3,871	2597.8	− 2583	14.8	× 35 / 140	3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	3,859	2451.4	− 2473	−21.6	× 13 / 124	−2.3
5	3,860	2441.4	− 2502	−60.6	× 17 / 124	−8.3
6	3,863	2446.9	− 2531	−84.1	× 20 / 124	−13.6
7	3,864	2532.3	− 2552	−19.7	× 18 / 124	−2.9
8	3,867	2515.4	− 2567	−51.6	× 17 / 124	−7.1
11	3,868	2606.9	− 2583	23.9	× 39 / 124	7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	3,899	2469.3	− 2531	−61.7	× 12 / 75	−9.9
7	3,900	2492.9	− 2552	−59.1	× 17 / 75	−13.4
8	3,901	2548.3	− 2567	−18.7	× 17 / 75	−4.2
11	3,902	2600.0	− 2583	17	× 29 / 75	6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	3,753	2492.5	− 2531	−38.5	× 11 / 45	−9.4
8	3,755	2519.2	− 2567	−47.8	× 16 / 45	−17
11	3,756	2554.1	− 2583	−28.9	× 18 / 45	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	3,798	2513.1	− 2552	−38.9	× 15 / 48	−12.2
8	3,799	2439.1	− 2567	−127.9	× 11 / 48	−29.3
11	3,800	2559.4	− 2583	−23.6	× 22 / 48	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	3,781	2531.9	− 2552	−20.1	× 18 / 49	−7.4
8	3,782	2514.1	− 2567	−52.9	× 16 / 49	−17.3
11	3,783	2578.3	− 2583	−4.7	× 15 / 49	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	3,747	2479.9	− 2531	−51.1	× 13 / 72	−9.2
7	3,748	2498.0	− 2552	−54	× 11 / 72	−8.3
8	3,749	2490.6	− 2567	−76.4	× 22 / 72	−23.3
11	3,750	2546.4	− 2583	−36.6	× 26 / 72	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	3,701	2496.2	− 2531	−34.8	× 14 / 67	−7.3
7	3,702	2545.7	− 2552	−6.3	× 15 / 67	−1.4
8	3,703	2511.5	− 2567	−55.5	× 17 / 67	−14.1
11	3,704	2491.5	− 2583	−91.5	× 21 / 67	−28.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −49, −44, −44, −27, −21, −38, −52, −26, −54, −51 → −40.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 17 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 26 · 2023→2024: 28 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 12.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.9 × 2.66 = 34.3. Upper limit −6.3, lower limit −74.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.