Lone Tree Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 15 points under the grade 3 bar. 2421 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2520 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 16 points under the grade 5 bar. 2512 vs. 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	106,225	2416.5	− 2436	−19.5	× 54 / 134	−7.9
4	106,228	2472.7	− 2485	−12.3	× 43 / 134	−3.9
5	106,229	2523.1	− 2528	−4.9	× 37 / 134	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,683	2423.8	− 2436	−12.2	× 62 / 153	−4.9
4	98,685	2477.5	− 2485	−7.5	× 44 / 153	−2.2
5	98,688	2517.9	− 2528	−10.1	× 47 / 153	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,553	2425.5	− 2436	−10.5	× 57 / 153	−3.9
4	101,554	2471.6	− 2485	−13.4	× 49 / 153	−4.3
5	101,557	2490.1	− 2528	−37.9	× 47 / 153	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,702	2423.0	− 2436	−13	× 46 / 163	−3.7
4	101,703	2464.2	− 2485	−20.8	× 62 / 163	−7.9
5	101,706	2494.8	− 2528	−33.2	× 55 / 163	−11.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	102,352	2417.4	− 2436	−18.6	× 43 / 132	−6.1
4	102,353	2472.6	− 2485	−12.4	× 40 / 132	−3.8
5	102,354	2477.5	− 2528	−50.5	× 49 / 132	−18.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,219	2444.2	− 2436	8.2	× 57 / 123	3.8
4	100,220	2441.5	− 2485	−43.5	× 41 / 123	−14.5
5	100,221	2486.2	− 2528	−41.8	× 25 / 123	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	102,637	2442.0	− 2436	6	× 39 / 134	1.7
4	102,638	2502.2	− 2485	17.2	× 47 / 134	6
5	102,639	2499.9	− 2528	−28.1	× 48 / 134	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	102,455	2431.6	− 2436	−4.4	× 49 / 130	−1.7
4	102,456	2502.9	− 2485	17.9	× 37 / 130	5.1
5	102,457	2504.0	− 2528	−24	× 44 / 130	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	102,350	2427.5	− 2436	−8.5	× 46 / 128	−3.1
4	102,351	2471.3	− 2485	−13.7	× 43 / 128	−4.6
5	102,352	2496.5	− 2528	−31.5	× 39 / 128	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	102,010	2412.5	− 2436	−23.5	× 39 / 117	−7.8
4	102,011	2505.5	− 2485	20.5	× 34 / 117	6
5	102,012	2497.6	− 2528	−30.4	× 44 / 117	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,671	2421.3	− 2436	−14.7	× 48 / 121	−5.8
4	101,672	2519.5	− 2485	34.5	× 33 / 121	9.4
5	101,673	2512.1	− 2528	−15.9	× 40 / 121	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −13, −10, −20, −23, −29, −19, −2, −5, −17, −13, −2 → −13.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 10 · 2021→2022: 17 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 11 → average 7.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.9 × 2.66 = 21. Upper limit 7.1, lower limit −34.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.