Lincoln Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 30 points under the grade 3 bar. 2406 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 41 points under the grade 4 bar. 2445 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 23 points under the grade 4 bar. 2462 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	104,443	2411.0	− 2436	−25	× 44 / 147	−7.5
4	104,444	2480.5	− 2485	−4.5	× 53 / 147	−1.6
5	104,447	2516.8	− 2528	−11.2	× 50 / 147	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,014	2407.9	− 2436	−28.1	× 48 / 152	−8.9
4	97,016	2464.3	− 2485	−20.7	× 45 / 152	−6.1
5	97,018	2510.3	− 2528	−17.7	× 59 / 152	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,824	2402.8	− 2436	−33.2	× 45 / 138	−10.8
4	99,827	2464.2	− 2485	−20.8	× 48 / 138	−7.2
5	99,828	2497.1	− 2528	−30.9	× 45 / 138	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,976	2420.9	− 2436	−15.1	× 27 / 117	−3.5
4	99,977	2448.1	− 2485	−36.9	× 40 / 117	−12.6
5	99,980	2505.3	− 2528	−22.7	× 50 / 117	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,640	2411.2	− 2436	−24.8	× 39 / 115	−8.4
4	100,641	2474.0	− 2485	−11	× 33 / 115	−3.2
5	100,642	2456.7	− 2528	−71.3	× 43 / 115	−26.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,501	2368.1	− 2436	−67.9	× 30 / 96	−21.2
4	98,502	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 29 / 96	−10.8
5	98,503	2471.5	− 2528	−56.5	× 37 / 96	−21.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,885	2396.5	− 2436	−39.5	× 30 / 99	−12
4	100,886	2431.4	− 2485	−53.6	× 34 / 99	−18.4
5	100,887	2441.5	− 2528	−86.5	× 35 / 99	−30.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,717	2367.3	− 2436	−68.7	× 44 / 111	−27.2
4	100,718	2451.8	− 2485	−33.2	× 33 / 111	−9.9
5	100,719	2456.2	− 2528	−71.8	× 34 / 111	−22
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,596	2370.2	− 2436	−65.8	× 30 / 100	−19.7
4	100,597	2433.2	− 2485	−51.8	× 37 / 100	−19.2
5	100,598	2473.6	− 2528	−54.4	× 33 / 100	−18
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,260	2379.6	− 2436	−56.4	× 29 / 92	−17.8
4	100,261	2438.0	− 2485	−47	× 29 / 92	−14.8
5	100,262	2452.3	− 2528	−75.7	× 34 / 92	−28
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,919	2405.8	− 2436	−30.2	× 23 / 79	−8.8
4	99,920	2444.5	− 2485	−40.5	× 25 / 79	−12.8
5	99,921	2462.1	− 2528	−65.9	× 31 / 79	−25.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −13, −22, −28, −26, −38, −54, −61, −59, −57, −61, −47 → −42.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2021: 16 · 2021→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 14 → average 7.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.4 × 2.66 = 19.7. Upper limit −22.7, lower limit −62.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.