Mupu Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	103,224	2430.4	− 2436	−5.6	× 17 / 79	−1.2
5	103,228	2490.1	− 2528	−37.9	× 15 / 79	−7.2
6	103,229	2503.5	− 2552	−48.5	× 13 / 79	−8
7	103,232	2528.0	− 2567	−39	× 21 / 79	−10.4
8	103,233	2555.2	− 2586	−30.8	× 13 / 79	−5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,914	2409.7	− 2436	−26.3	× 15 / 94	−4.2
4	95,916	2495.1	− 2485	10.1	× 16 / 94	1.7
5	95,918	2438.8	− 2528	−89.2	× 13 / 94	−12.3
6	95,919	2506.4	− 2552	−45.6	× 18 / 94	−8.7
7	95,921	2567.5	− 2567	0.5	× 12 / 94	0.1
8	95,924	2573.5	− 2586	−12.5	× 20 / 94	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	98,694	2455.1	− 2485	−29.9	× 17 / 84	−6.1
5	98,697	2517.1	− 2528	−10.9	× 16 / 84	−2.1
6	98,699	2494.9	− 2552	−57.1	× 14 / 84	−9.5
7	98,701	2567.5	− 2567	0.5	× 21 / 84	0.1
8	98,702	2597.2	− 2586	11.2	× 16 / 84	2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,869	2384.1	− 2436	−51.9	× 16 / 96	−8.7
4	98,872	2446.9	− 2485	−38.1	× 14 / 96	−5.6
5	98,873	2458.1	− 2528	−69.9	× 16 / 96	−11.7
6	98,876	2550.4	− 2552	−1.6	× 17 / 96	−0.3
7	98,877	2529.8	− 2567	−37.2	× 13 / 96	−5
8	98,880	2620.1	− 2586	34.1	× 20 / 96	7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,551	2414.0	− 2436	−22	× 20 / 103	−4.3
4	99,552	2441.4	− 2485	−43.6	× 15 / 103	−6.3
5	99,553	2462.1	− 2528	−65.9	× 18 / 103	−11.5
6	99,554	2515.6	− 2552	−36.4	× 20 / 103	−7.1
7	99,555	2598.1	− 2567	31.1	× 18 / 103	5.4
8	99,556	2550.0	− 2586	−36	× 12 / 103	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,380	2414.6	− 2436	−21.4	× 14 / 98	−3.1
4	97,381	2466.4	− 2485	−18.6	× 20 / 98	−3.8
5	97,382	2440.1	− 2528	−87.9	× 15 / 98	−13.5
6	97,383	2456.5	− 2552	−95.5	× 16 / 98	−15.6
7	97,384	2493.8	− 2567	−73.2	× 14 / 98	−10.5
8	97,385	2548.0	− 2586	−38	× 19 / 98	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,742	2369.8	− 2436	−66.2	× 17 / 109	−10.3
4	99,743	2463.7	− 2485	−21.3	× 16 / 109	−3.1
5	99,744	2464.5	− 2528	−63.5	× 23 / 109	−13.4
6	99,745	2471.2	− 2552	−80.8	× 17 / 109	−12.6
7	99,746	2532.2	− 2567	−34.8	× 21 / 109	−6.7
8	99,747	2530.6	− 2586	−55.4	× 15 / 109	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,576	2431.8	− 2436	−4.2	× 16 / 121	−0.6
4	99,577	2466.6	− 2485	−18.4	× 16 / 121	−2.4
5	99,578	2463.2	− 2528	−64.8	× 18 / 121	−9.6
6	99,579	2495.3	− 2552	−56.7	× 29 / 121	−13.6
7	99,580	2477.8	− 2567	−89.2	× 21 / 121	−15.5
8	99,581	2533.0	− 2586	−53	× 21 / 121	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,483	2433.9	− 2436	−2.1	× 18 / 119	−0.3
4	99,484	2437.2	− 2485	−47.8	× 18 / 119	−7.2
5	99,485	2448.9	− 2528	−79.1	× 16 / 119	−10.6
6	99,486	2497.0	− 2552	−55	× 20 / 119	−9.2
7	99,487	2498.6	− 2567	−68.4	× 25 / 119	−14.4
8	99,488	2474.0	− 2586	−112	× 22 / 119	−20.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,181	2393.3	− 2436	−42.7	× 19 / 107	−7.6
4	99,182	2479.9	− 2485	−5.1	× 17 / 107	−0.8
5	99,183	2451.7	− 2528	−76.3	× 14 / 107	−10
6	99,184	2510.0	− 2552	−42	× 15 / 107	−5.9
7	99,185	2531.0	− 2567	−36	× 18 / 107	−6.1
8	99,186	2549.8	− 2586	−36.2	× 24 / 107	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,840	2443.4	− 2436	7.4	× 20 / 118	1.3
4	98,841	2417.8	− 2485	−67.2	× 21 / 118	−12
5	98,842	2472.2	− 2528	−55.8	× 20 / 118	−9.5
6	98,843	2484.8	− 2552	−67.2	× 18 / 118	−10.3
7	98,844	2488.2	− 2567	−78.8	× 20 / 118	−13.4
8	98,845	2558.7	− 2586	−27.3	× 19 / 118	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −32, −26, −15, −24, −28, −54, −54, −51, −63, −38, −48 → −39.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 26 · 2021→2022: 0 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 25 · 2025→2026: 10 → average 10.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.6 × 2.66 = 28.2. Upper limit −11.2, lower limit −67.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Mupu Elementary