Terra Bella Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,214	2370.8	− 2436	−65.2	× 106 / 595	−11.6
4	101,215	2407.3	− 2485	−77.7	× 109 / 595	−14.2
5	101,218	2431.7	− 2528	−96.3	× 98 / 595	−15.9
6	101,219	2427.6	− 2552	−124.4	× 89 / 595	−18.6
7	101,222	2451.4	− 2567	−115.6	× 99 / 595	−19.2
8	101,223	2457.7	− 2586	−128.3	× 94 / 595	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,920	2375.4	− 2436	−60.6	× 95 / 591	−9.7
4	93,923	2402.1	− 2485	−82.9	× 102 / 591	−14.3
5	93,925	2426.5	− 2528	−101.5	× 104 / 591	−17.9
6	93,927	2431.3	− 2552	−120.7	× 99 / 591	−20.2
7	93,929	2445.8	− 2567	−121.2	× 91 / 591	−18.7
8	93,930	2448.6	− 2586	−137.4	× 100 / 591	−23.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,685	2391.6	− 2436	−44.4	× 105 / 594	−7.8
4	96,687	2394.8	− 2485	−90.2	× 94 / 594	−14.3
5	96,689	2429.6	− 2528	−98.4	× 103 / 594	−17.1
6	96,691	2431.5	− 2552	−120.5	× 104 / 594	−21.1
7	96,693	2484.6	− 2567	−82.4	× 95 / 594	−13.2
8	96,695	2476.6	− 2586	−109.4	× 93 / 594	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,867	2429.1	− 2436	−6.9	× 103 / 587	−1.2
4	96,870	2419.4	− 2485	−65.6	× 100 / 587	−11.2
5	96,871	2430.9	− 2528	−97.1	× 90 / 587	−14.9
6	96,874	2483.4	− 2552	−68.6	× 104 / 587	−12.2
7	96,875	2491.8	− 2567	−75.2	× 95 / 587	−12.2
8	96,878	2506.1	− 2586	−79.9	× 95 / 587	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,536	2422.9	− 2436	−13.1	× 97 / 574	−2.2
4	97,537	2436.3	− 2485	−48.7	× 95 / 574	−8.1
5	97,538	2459.9	− 2528	−68.1	× 93 / 574	−11
6	97,539	2436.3	− 2552	−115.7	× 95 / 574	−19.1
7	97,540	2485.1	− 2567	−81.9	× 99 / 574	−14.1
8	97,541	2506.8	− 2586	−79.2	× 95 / 574	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,409	2377.5	− 2436	−58.5	× 99 / 560	−10.3
4	95,410	2381.5	− 2485	−103.5	× 91 / 560	−16.8
5	95,411	2404.6	− 2528	−123.4	× 96 / 560	−21.2
6	95,412	2434.0	− 2552	−118	× 88 / 560	−18.5
7	95,413	2464.5	− 2567	−102.5	× 89 / 560	−16.3
8	95,414	2450.2	− 2586	−135.8	× 97 / 560	−23.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,712	2407.2	− 2436	−28.8	× 87 / 540	−4.6
4	97,713	2415.9	− 2485	−69.1	× 96 / 540	−12.3
5	97,714	2441.2	− 2528	−86.8	× 89 / 540	−14.3
6	97,715	2446.8	− 2552	−105.2	× 92 / 540	−17.9
7	97,716	2484.4	− 2567	−82.6	× 88 / 540	−13.5
8	97,717	2489.7	− 2586	−96.3	× 88 / 540	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,559	2399.2	− 2436	−36.8	× 68 / 520	−4.8
4	97,560	2423.6	− 2485	−61.4	× 84 / 520	−9.9
5	97,561	2448.3	− 2528	−79.7	× 101 / 520	−15.5
6	97,562	2447.3	− 2552	−104.7	× 87 / 520	−17.5
7	97,563	2463.8	− 2567	−103.2	× 94 / 520	−18.7
8	97,564	2521.3	− 2586	−64.7	× 86 / 520	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,456	2407.7	− 2436	−28.3	× 71 / 481	−4.2
4	97,457	2417.7	− 2485	−67.3	× 67 / 481	−9.4
5	97,458	2441.4	− 2528	−86.6	× 87 / 481	−15.7
6	97,459	2444.2	− 2552	−107.8	× 92 / 481	−20.6
7	97,460	2483.5	− 2567	−83.5	× 79 / 481	−13.7
8	97,461	2501.6	− 2586	−84.4	× 85 / 481	−14.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,171	2412.3	− 2436	−23.7	× 69 / 465	−3.5
4	97,172	2439.7	− 2485	−45.3	× 71 / 465	−6.9
5	97,173	2435.8	− 2528	−92.2	× 64 / 465	−12.7
6	97,174	2450.5	− 2552	−101.5	× 86 / 465	−18.8
7	97,175	2464.8	− 2567	−102.2	× 90 / 465	−19.8
8	97,176	2515.2	− 2586	−70.8	× 85 / 465	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,801	2410.4	− 2436	−25.6	× 65 / 457	−3.6
4	96,802	2444.2	− 2485	−40.8	× 72 / 457	−6.4
5	96,803	2432.1	− 2528	−95.9	× 75 / 457	−15.7
6	96,804	2433.6	− 2552	−118.4	× 61 / 457	−15.8
7	96,805	2479.4	− 2567	−87.6	× 94 / 457	−18
8	96,806	2504.7	− 2586	−81.3	× 90 / 457	−16
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −100, −104, −91, −65, −68, −107, −78, −77, −78, −75, −76 → −83.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 26 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 39 · 2021→2022: 29 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 12
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12 × 2.66 = 31.9. Upper limit −51.6, lower limit −115.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Terra Bella Union Elementary