Alpaugh Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,168	2369.7	− 2436	−66.3	× 35 / 162	−14.3
4	100,169	2416.2	− 2485	−68.8	× 30 / 162	−12.7
5	100,172	2420.4	− 2528	−107.6	× 15 / 162	−10
6	100,173	2423.6	− 2552	−128.4	× 24 / 162	−19
7	100,176	2446.4	− 2567	−120.6	× 18 / 162	−13.4
8	100,177	2492.1	− 2586	−93.9	× 24 / 162	−13.9
11	100,180	2476.9	− 2628	−151.1	× 16 / 162	−14.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,877	2378.7	− 2436	−57.3	× 18 / 166	−6.2
4	92,879	2424.5	− 2485	−60.5	× 42 / 166	−15.3
5	92,881	2402.7	− 2528	−125.3	× 32 / 166	−24.2
6	92,882	2464.4	− 2552	−87.6	× 14 / 166	−7.4
7	92,885	2423.4	− 2567	−143.6	× 22 / 166	−19
8	92,887	2481.4	− 2586	−104.6	× 16 / 166	−10.1
11	92,889	2491.0	− 2628	−137	× 22 / 166	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,639	2383.7	− 2436	−52.3	× 27 / 177	−8
4	95,641	2409.0	− 2485	−76	× 20 / 177	−8.6
5	95,643	2420.8	− 2528	−107.2	× 39 / 177	−23.6
6	95,644	2439.5	− 2552	−112.5	× 26 / 177	−16.5
7	95,646	2433.0	− 2567	−134	× 20 / 177	−15.1
8	95,648	2428.7	− 2586	−157.3	× 19 / 177	−16.9
11	95,651	2450.8	− 2628	−177.2	× 26 / 177	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,828	2358.9	− 2436	−77.1	× 34 / 188	−13.9
4	95,830	2437.2	− 2485	−47.8	× 27 / 188	−6.9
5	95,832	2417.8	− 2528	−110.2	× 16 / 188	−9.4
6	95,834	2459.7	− 2552	−92.3	× 38 / 188	−18.7
7	95,836	2471.9	− 2567	−95.1	× 28 / 188	−14.2
8	95,838	2453.7	− 2586	−132.3	× 21 / 188	−14.8
11	95,840	2513.3	− 2628	−114.7	× 24 / 188	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,515	2352.4	− 2436	−83.6	× 29 / 177	−13.7
4	96,516	2413.9	− 2485	−71.1	× 37 / 177	−14.9
5	96,517	2460.8	− 2528	−67.2	× 23 / 177	−8.7
6	96,518	2430.1	− 2552	−121.9	× 15 / 177	−10.3
7	96,519	2444.9	− 2567	−122.1	× 34 / 177	−23.5
8	96,520	2472.2	− 2586	−113.8	× 27 / 177	−17.4
11	96,521	2474.7	− 2628	−153.3	× 12 / 177	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,689	2332.0	− 2436	−104	× 30 / 192	−16.3
4	96,690	2372.6	− 2485	−112.4	× 20 / 192	−11.7
5	96,691	2397.7	− 2528	−130.3	× 32 / 192	−21.7
6	96,692	2368.1	− 2552	−183.9	× 29 / 192	−27.8
7	96,693	2430.7	− 2567	−136.3	× 34 / 192	−24.1
8	96,694	2458.8	− 2586	−127.2	× 24 / 192	−15.9
11	96,695	2434.1	− 2628	−193.9	× 23 / 192	−23.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−141

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,532	2329.1	− 2436	−106.9	× 30 / 230	−13.9
4	96,533	2380.4	− 2485	−104.6	× 34 / 230	−15.5
5	96,534	2378.7	− 2528	−149.3	× 25 / 230	−16.2
6	96,535	2398.7	− 2552	−153.3	× 32 / 230	−21.3
7	96,536	2403.2	− 2567	−163.8	× 34 / 230	−24.2
8	96,537	2436.4	− 2586	−149.6	× 34 / 230	−22.1
11	96,538	2450.9	− 2628	−177.1	× 41 / 230	−31.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,424	2346.7	− 2436	−89.3	× 25 / 180	−12.4
4	96,425	2402.4	− 2485	−82.6	× 26 / 180	−11.9
5	96,426	2390.0	− 2528	−138	× 32 / 180	−24.5
6	96,427	2390.8	− 2552	−161.2	× 25 / 180	−22.4
7	96,428	2440.0	− 2567	−127	× 30 / 180	−21.2
8	96,429	2413.1	− 2586	−172.9	× 27 / 180	−25.9
11	96,430	2476.9	− 2628	−151.1	× 15 / 180	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−131

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,152	2317.4	− 2436	−118.6	× 28 / 188	−17.7
4	96,153	2387.8	− 2485	−97.2	× 26 / 188	−13.4
5	96,154	2421.5	− 2528	−106.5	× 25 / 188	−14.2
6	96,155	2375.1	− 2552	−176.9	× 29 / 188	−27.3
7	96,156	2416.7	− 2567	−150.3	× 23 / 188	−18.4
8	96,157	2432.8	− 2586	−153.2	× 30 / 188	−24.4
11	96,158	2461.5	− 2628	−166.5	× 27 / 188	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−139

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,776	2406.6	− 2436	−29.4	× 30 / 201	−4.4
4	95,777	2362.3	− 2485	−122.7	× 31 / 201	−18.9
5	95,778	2416.8	− 2528	−111.2	× 25 / 201	−13.8
6	95,779	2478.8	− 2552	−73.2	× 27 / 201	−9.8
7	95,780	2424.8	− 2567	−142.2	× 33 / 201	−23.3
8	95,781	2464.1	− 2586	−121.9	× 22 / 201	−13.3
11	95,782	2468.8	− 2628	−159.2	× 33 / 201	−26.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −98, −100, −115, −92, −99, −141, −145, −131, −139, −110 → −117
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 23 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 42 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 29 → average 16
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16 × 2.66 = 42.6. Upper limit −74.4, lower limit −159.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Alpaugh Unified