Sutter County Office of Education: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,445	2261.6	− 2436	−174.4	× 13 / 65	−34.9
4	98,446	2300.0	− 2485	−185	× 14 / 65	−39.8
5	98,448	2351.5	− 2528	−176.5	× 13 / 65	−35.3
8	98,454	2433.9	− 2586	−152.1	× 13 / 65	−30.4
11	98,457	2429.5	− 2628	−198.5	× 12 / 65	−36.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−177

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	91,187	2454.4	− 2628	−173.6	× 29 / 29	−173.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−174

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	93,941	2307.7	− 2528	−220.3	× 11 / 39	−62.1
7	93,944	2362.9	− 2567	−204.1	× 12 / 39	−62.8
11	93,948	2397.1	− 2628	−230.9	× 16 / 39	−94.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−220

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	94,152	2265.8	− 2485	−219.2	× 11 / 23	−104.8
7	94,157	2305.9	− 2567	−261.1	× 12 / 23	−136.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−241

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	94,781	2369.9	− 2567	−197.1	× 14 / 45	−61.3
8	94,782	2366.2	− 2586	−219.8	× 20 / 45	−97.7
11	94,783	2420.3	− 2628	−207.7	× 11 / 45	−50.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−210

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
8	95,006	2332.5	− 2586	−253.5	× 17 / 32	−134.7
11	95,007	2398.9	− 2628	−229.1	× 15 / 32	−107.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−242

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,901	2248.4	− 2436	−187.6	× 11 / 42	−49.1
6	94,904	2329.2	− 2552	−222.8	× 16 / 42	−84.9
11	94,907	2394.4	− 2628	−233.6	× 15 / 42	−83.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−217

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	94,775	2269.9	− 2485	−215.1	× 14 / 32	−94.1
11	94,780	2418.4	− 2628	−209.6	× 18 / 32	−117.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−212

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,504	2282.3	− 2436	−153.7	× 15 / 26	−88.7
8	94,509	2373.3	− 2586	−212.7	× 11 / 26	−90
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−179

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	94,107	2301.0	− 2485	−184	× 11 / 32	−63.3
11	94,112	2458.0	− 2628	−170	× 21 / 32	−111.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−175

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −177, −174, −220, −241, −210, −242, −217, −212, −179, −175 → −204.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 46 · 2017→2018: 21 · 2018→2019: 31 · 2019→2022: 32 · 2022→2023: 25 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 33 · 2025→2026: 4 → average 22.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 22.2 × 2.66 = 59.1. Upper limit −145.6, lower limit −263.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Sutter County Office of Education