Marcum-Illinois Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,639	2440.9	− 2436	4.9	× 17 / 121	0.7
4	98,640	2492.8	− 2485	7.8	× 21 / 121	1.4
5	98,643	2524.4	− 2528	−3.6	× 20 / 121	−0.6
6	98,644	2514.5	− 2552	−37.5	× 22 / 121	−6.8
7	98,647	2548.0	− 2567	−19	× 18 / 121	−2.8
8	98,648	2570.3	− 2586	−15.7	× 23 / 121	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,371	2445.3	− 2436	9.3	× 15 / 98	1.4
4	91,372	2516.7	− 2485	31.7	× 16 / 98	5.2
5	91,374	2503.1	− 2528	−24.9	× 18 / 98	−4.6
6	91,376	2575.3	− 2552	23.3	× 16 / 98	3.8
7	91,379	2549.6	− 2567	−17.4	× 19 / 98	−3.4
8	91,381	2594.1	− 2586	8.1	× 14 / 98	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,135	2476.8	− 2436	40.8	× 16 / 108	6
4	94,137	2509.3	− 2485	24.3	× 16 / 108	3.6
5	94,139	2491.1	− 2528	−36.9	× 17 / 108	−5.8
6	94,141	2536.7	− 2552	−15.3	× 22 / 108	−3.1
7	94,143	2612.9	− 2567	45.9	× 18 / 108	7.7
8	94,144	2602.9	− 2586	16.9	× 19 / 108	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,344	2433.7	− 2436	−2.3	× 18 / 94	−0.4
4	94,347	2570.0	− 2485	85	× 13 / 94	11.8
5	94,348	2481.8	− 2528	−46.2	× 17 / 94	−8.4
6	94,351	2496.0	− 2552	−56	× 16 / 94	−9.5
7	94,352	2520.4	− 2567	−46.6	× 18 / 94	−8.9
8	94,355	2648.4	− 2586	62.4	× 12 / 94	8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,978	2439.8	− 2436	3.8	× 16 / 99	0.6
4	94,979	2556.9	− 2485	71.9	× 16 / 99	11.6
5	94,980	2567.5	− 2528	39.5	× 15 / 99	6
6	94,981	2508.1	− 2552	−43.9	× 17 / 99	−7.5
7	94,982	2525.6	− 2567	−41.4	× 17 / 99	−7.1
8	94,983	2596.4	− 2586	10.4	× 18 / 99	1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,955	2435.9	− 2436	−0.1	× 21 / 110	0
4	92,956	2491.8	− 2485	6.8	× 21 / 110	1.3
5	92,957	2467.6	− 2528	−60.4	× 16 / 110	−8.8
6	92,958	2559.5	− 2552	7.5	× 16 / 110	1.1
7	92,959	2572.1	− 2567	5.1	× 18 / 110	0.8
8	92,960	2549.1	− 2586	−36.9	× 18 / 110	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,220	2417.7	− 2436	−18.3	× 21 / 120	−3.2
4	95,221	2525.8	− 2485	40.8	× 23 / 120	7.8
5	95,222	2472.8	− 2528	−55.2	× 22 / 120	−10.1
6	95,223	2518.4	− 2552	−33.6	× 20 / 120	−5.6
7	95,224	2595.6	− 2567	28.6	× 18 / 120	4.3
8	95,225	2589.1	− 2586	3.1	× 16 / 120	0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,118	2450.4	− 2436	14.4	× 19 / 122	2.2
4	95,119	2532.9	− 2485	47.9	× 18 / 122	7.1
5	95,120	2498.2	− 2528	−29.8	× 23 / 122	−5.6
6	95,121	2507.1	− 2552	−44.9	× 23 / 122	−8.5
7	95,122	2540.6	− 2567	−26.4	× 21 / 122	−4.5
8	95,123	2575.3	− 2586	−10.7	× 18 / 122	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,983	2434.0	− 2436	−2	× 21 / 115	−0.4
4	94,984	2535.2	− 2485	50.2	× 18 / 115	7.9
5	94,985	2514.8	− 2528	−13.2	× 17 / 115	−2
6	94,986	2553.5	− 2552	1.5	× 20 / 115	0.3
7	94,987	2560.0	− 2567	−7	× 22 / 115	−1.3
8	94,988	2534.1	− 2586	−51.9	× 17 / 115	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,715	2469.8	− 2436	33.8	× 14 / 110	4.3
4	94,716	2513.8	− 2485	28.8	× 19 / 110	5
5	94,717	2524.2	− 2528	−3.8	× 17 / 110	−0.6
6	94,718	2568.2	− 2552	16.2	× 18 / 110	2.7
7	94,719	2585.9	− 2567	18.9	× 19 / 110	3.3
8	94,720	2567.3	− 2586	−18.7	× 23 / 110	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,321	2442.2	− 2436	6.2	× 21 / 115	1.1
4	94,322	2531.1	− 2485	46.1	× 16 / 115	6.4
5	94,323	2496.6	− 2528	−31.4	× 21 / 115	−5.7
6	94,324	2547.3	− 2552	−4.7	× 19 / 115	−0.8
7	94,325	2591.7	− 2567	24.7	× 18 / 115	3.9
8	94,326	2573.4	− 2586	−12.6	× 20 / 115	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −11, 4, 11, −8, 5, −12, −6, −11, −3, 11, 3 → −1.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 15 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 19 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 14 · 2025→2026: 8 → average 11.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.2 × 2.66 = 29.8. Upper limit 28.3, lower limit −31.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Marcum-Illinois Union Elementary