Encinal Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 7.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2473 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2505 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 42 points under the grade 5 bar. 2487 vs. 2528.
7th The average 7th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2524 vs. 2528. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,608	2460.5	− 2436	24.5	× 13 / 63	5.1
5	98,612	2467.4	− 2528	−60.6	× 15 / 63	−14.4
6	98,615	2509.5	− 2552	−42.5	× 11 / 63	−7.4
7	98,616	2543.1	− 2567	−23.9	× 12 / 63	−4.6
8	98,619	2529.0	− 2586	−57	× 12 / 63	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,340	2432.9	− 2436	−3.1	× 11 / 60	−0.6
4	91,343	2531.8	− 2485	46.8	× 11 / 60	8.6
5	91,345	2482.9	− 2528	−45.1	× 11 / 60	−8.3
6	91,346	2520.8	− 2552	−31.2	× 15 / 60	−7.8
8	91,350	2572.0	− 2586	−14	× 12 / 60	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,102	2446.8	− 2436	10.8	× 12 / 63	2.1
4	94,104	2507.6	− 2485	22.6	× 12 / 63	4.3
5	94,107	2541.9	− 2528	13.9	× 12 / 63	2.6
6	94,109	2512.3	− 2552	−39.7	× 12 / 63	−7.6
7	94,110	2548.3	− 2567	−18.7	× 15 / 63	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,315	2477.0	− 2436	41	× 13 / 74	7.2
4	94,316	2493.8	− 2485	8.8	× 12 / 74	1.4
5	94,319	2508.8	− 2528	−19.2	× 12 / 74	−3.1
6	94,320	2597.8	− 2552	45.8	× 13 / 74	8
7	94,323	2540.1	− 2567	−26.9	× 11 / 74	−4
8	94,324	2546.4	− 2586	−39.6	× 13 / 74	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,948	2438.2	− 2436	2.2	× 13 / 78	0.4
4	94,949	2554.0	− 2485	69	× 13 / 78	11.5
5	94,950	2469.9	− 2528	−58.1	× 13 / 78	−9.7
6	94,951	2533.9	− 2552	−18.1	× 13 / 78	−3
7	94,952	2619.4	− 2567	52.4	× 14 / 78	9.4
8	94,953	2558.9	− 2586	−27.1	× 12 / 78	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,190	2424.2	− 2436	−11.8	× 13 / 75	−2
4	95,191	2519.7	− 2485	34.7	× 13 / 75	6
5	95,192	2444.8	− 2528	−83.2	× 13 / 75	−14.4
6	95,193	2489.5	− 2552	−62.5	× 12 / 75	−10
7	95,194	2541.6	− 2567	−25.4	× 13 / 75	−4.4
8	95,195	2529.4	− 2586	−56.6	× 11 / 75	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,088	2458.9	− 2436	22.9	× 12 / 74	3.7
4	95,089	2489.9	− 2485	4.9	× 13 / 74	0.9
5	95,090	2550.0	− 2528	22	× 12 / 74	3.6
6	95,091	2488.0	− 2552	−64	× 13 / 74	−11.2
7	95,092	2509.2	− 2567	−57.8	× 11 / 74	−8.6
8	95,093	2564.7	− 2586	−21.3	× 13 / 74	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,953	2477.1	− 2436	41.1	× 12 / 51	9.7
4	94,954	2518.8	− 2485	33.8	× 13 / 51	8.6
5	94,955	2471.8	− 2528	−56.2	× 13 / 51	−14.3
7	94,957	2525.6	− 2567	−41.4	× 13 / 51	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,685	2447.3	− 2436	11.3	× 13 / 64	2.3
4	94,686	2509.9	− 2485	24.9	× 12 / 64	4.7
5	94,687	2501.0	− 2528	−27	× 11 / 64	−4.6
6	94,688	2500.6	− 2552	−51.4	× 15 / 64	−12
8	94,690	2530.4	− 2586	−55.6	× 13 / 64	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,291	2472.7	− 2436	36.7	× 12 / 51	8.6
4	94,292	2504.8	− 2485	19.8	× 13 / 51	5
5	94,293	2486.5	− 2528	−41.5	× 11 / 51	−9
7	94,295	2523.5	− 2567	−43.5	× 15 / 51	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −32, −11, −3, 3, 4, −33, −15, −7, −21, −8 → −12.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 37 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 14 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 14
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14 × 2.66 = 37.2. Upper limit 24.9, lower limit −49.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.