Stanislaus County Office of Education: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	96,197	2442.5	− 2528	−85.5	× 2 / 201	−0.9
6	96,198	2371.4	− 2552	−180.6	× 9 / 201	−8.1
7	96,201	2401.3	− 2567	−165.7	× 35 / 201	−28.9
8	96,202	2396.5	− 2586	−189.5	× 62 / 201	−58.5
11	96,205	2411.4	− 2628	−216.6	× 93 / 201	−100.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−196

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	89,230	2465.7	− 2552	−86.3	× 11 / 180	−5.3
7	89,231	2395.6	− 2567	−171.4	× 44 / 180	−41.9
8	89,234	2401.9	− 2586	−184.1	× 47 / 180	−48.1
11	89,235	2415.8	− 2628	−212.2	× 78 / 180	−92
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−187

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	91,816	2323.1	− 2528	−204.9	× 15 / 184	−16.7
6	91,818	2377.3	− 2552	−174.7	× 30 / 184	−28.5
7	91,821	2407.9	− 2567	−159.1	× 35 / 184	−30.3
8	91,823	2394.2	− 2586	−191.8	× 53 / 184	−55.2
11	91,824	2411.6	− 2628	−216.4	× 51 / 184	−60
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−191

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,010	2345.8	− 2436	−90.2	× 11 / 242	−4.1
5	92,014	2351.2	− 2528	−176.8	× 12 / 242	−8.8
7	92,017	2353.4	− 2567	−213.6	× 23 / 242	−20.3
8	92,020	2385.9	− 2586	−200.1	× 75 / 242	−62
11	92,021	2417.7	− 2628	−210.3	× 121 / 242	−105.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−200

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,654	2350.5	− 2436	−85.5	× 14 / 202	−5.9
4	92,655	2389.2	− 2485	−95.8	× 19 / 202	−9
6	92,657	2382.8	− 2552	−169.2	× 20 / 202	−16.8
7	92,658	2385.4	− 2567	−181.6	× 36 / 202	−32.4
8	92,659	2386.6	− 2586	−199.4	× 34 / 202	−33.6
11	92,660	2402.2	− 2628	−225.8	× 79 / 202	−88.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−186

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,703	2271.1	− 2436	−164.9	× 16 / 138	−19.1
5	90,705	2318.3	− 2528	−209.7	× 21 / 138	−31.9
7	90,707	2429.2	− 2567	−137.8	× 17 / 138	−17
8	90,708	2411.6	− 2586	−174.4	× 37 / 138	−46.8
11	90,709	2405.1	− 2628	−222.9	× 47 / 138	−75.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−191

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,905	2321.6	− 2436	−114.4	× 31 / 209	−17
5	92,907	2373.1	− 2528	−154.9	× 17 / 209	−12.6
6	92,908	2385.5	− 2552	−166.5	× 25 / 209	−19.9
7	92,909	2371.9	− 2567	−195.1	× 34 / 209	−31.7
8	92,910	2399.5	− 2586	−186.5	× 39 / 209	−34.8
11	92,911	2414.0	− 2628	−214	× 63 / 209	−64.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−181

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,807	2279.6	− 2436	−156.4	× 25 / 204	−19.2
4	92,808	2331.4	− 2485	−153.6	× 23 / 204	−17.3
5	92,809	2359.9	− 2528	−168.1	× 15 / 204	−12.4
6	92,810	2379.4	− 2552	−172.6	× 16 / 204	−13.5
7	92,811	2388.8	− 2567	−178.2	× 24 / 204	−21
8	92,812	2367.5	− 2586	−218.5	× 48 / 204	−51.4
11	92,813	2401.8	− 2628	−226.2	× 53 / 204	−58.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−194

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,700	2285.2	− 2436	−150.8	× 16 / 178	−13.6
4	92,701	2311.5	− 2485	−173.5	× 17 / 178	−16.6
5	92,702	2370.4	− 2528	−157.6	× 16 / 178	−14.2
6	92,703	2341.1	− 2552	−210.9	× 19 / 178	−22.5
7	92,704	2385.9	− 2567	−181.1	× 20 / 178	−20.3
8	92,705	2377.8	− 2586	−208.2	× 46 / 178	−53.8
11	92,706	2381.4	− 2628	−246.6	× 44 / 178	−61
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−202

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,434	2313.2	− 2436	−122.8	× 17 / 163	−12.8
6	92,437	2408.4	− 2552	−143.6	× 15 / 163	−13.2
7	92,438	2403.6	− 2567	−163.4	× 28 / 163	−28.1
8	92,439	2365.4	− 2586	−220.6	× 48 / 163	−65
11	92,440	2393.5	− 2628	−234.5	× 55 / 163	−79.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−198

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	92,039	2373.0	− 2567	−194	× 33 / 138	−46.4
8	92,040	2344.5	− 2586	−241.5	× 49 / 138	−85.8
11	92,041	2391.5	− 2628	−236.5	× 56 / 138	−96
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−228

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −196, −187, −191, −200, −186, −191, −181, −194, −202, −198, −228 → −195.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 14 · 2019→2021: 5 · 2021→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 13 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 30 → average 10.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.6 × 2.66 = 28.2. Upper limit −167.6, lower limit −224.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Stanislaus County Office of Education