Salida Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,481	2397.2	− 2436	−38.8	× 280 / 1710	−6.4
4	97,482	2436.9	− 2485	−48.1	× 235 / 1710	−6.6
5	97,484	2463.3	− 2528	−64.7	× 296 / 1710	−11.2
6	97,486	2518.8	− 2552	−33.2	× 280 / 1710	−5.4
7	97,488	2514.5	− 2567	−52.5	× 302 / 1710	−9.3
8	97,491	2517.1	− 2586	−68.9	× 317 / 1710	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,369	2402.1	− 2436	−33.9	× 255 / 1682	−5.1
4	90,370	2431.0	− 2485	−54	× 292 / 1682	−9.4
5	90,372	2466.6	− 2528	−61.4	× 248 / 1682	−9.1
6	90,375	2498.2	− 2552	−53.8	× 299 / 1682	−9.6
7	90,377	2524.7	− 2567	−42.3	× 282 / 1682	−7.1
8	90,379	2508.3	− 2586	−77.7	× 306 / 1682	−14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,020	2406.9	− 2436	−29.1	× 258 / 1650	−4.6
4	93,023	2435.7	− 2485	−49.3	× 260 / 1650	−7.8
5	93,025	2458.3	− 2528	−69.7	× 292 / 1650	−12.3
6	93,027	2497.6	− 2552	−54.4	× 256 / 1650	−8.4
7	93,028	2513.4	− 2567	−53.6	× 300 / 1650	−9.7
8	93,030	2528.5	− 2586	−57.5	× 284 / 1650	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,223	2425.7	− 2436	−10.3	× 229 / 1579	−1.5
4	93,226	2450.9	− 2485	−34.1	× 254 / 1579	−5.5
5	93,227	2468.4	− 2528	−59.6	× 257 / 1579	−9.7
6	93,230	2487.8	− 2552	−64.2	× 282 / 1579	−11.5
7	93,231	2518.9	− 2567	−48.1	× 254 / 1579	−7.7
8	93,234	2522.8	− 2586	−63.2	× 303 / 1579	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,875	2422.7	− 2436	−13.3	× 261 / 1590	−2.2
4	93,876	2460.2	− 2485	−24.8	× 233 / 1590	−3.6
5	93,877	2475.8	− 2528	−52.2	× 278 / 1590	−9.1
6	93,878	2478.8	− 2552	−73.2	× 263 / 1590	−12.1
7	93,879	2514.5	− 2567	−52.5	× 297 / 1590	−9.8
8	93,880	2534.8	− 2586	−51.2	× 258 / 1590	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,901	2398.2	− 2436	−37.8	× 233 / 1442	−6.1
4	91,902	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 234 / 1442	−7.3
5	91,903	2457.7	− 2528	−70.3	× 253 / 1442	−12.3
6	91,904	2469.3	− 2552	−82.7	× 220 / 1442	−12.6
7	91,905	2476.0	− 2567	−91	× 271 / 1442	−17.1
8	91,906	2479.1	− 2586	−106.9	× 231 / 1442	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,120	2395.9	− 2436	−40.1	× 248 / 1505	−6.6
4	94,121	2458.9	− 2485	−26.1	× 226 / 1505	−3.9
5	94,122	2459.8	− 2528	−68.2	× 248 / 1505	−11.2
6	94,123	2480.6	− 2552	−71.4	× 255 / 1505	−12.1
7	94,124	2470.3	− 2567	−96.7	× 251 / 1505	−16.1
8	94,125	2482.9	− 2586	−103.1	× 277 / 1505	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,024	2418.5	− 2436	−17.5	× 225 / 1407	−2.8
4	94,025	2440.1	− 2485	−44.9	× 242 / 1407	−7.7
5	94,026	2473.6	− 2528	−54.4	× 215 / 1407	−8.3
6	94,027	2485.2	− 2552	−66.8	× 229 / 1407	−10.9
7	94,028	2483.5	− 2567	−83.5	× 248 / 1407	−14.7
8	94,029	2523.9	− 2586	−62.1	× 248 / 1407	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,909	2402.4	− 2436	−33.6	× 215 / 1350	−5.4
4	93,910	2442.1	− 2485	−42.9	× 230 / 1350	−7.3
5	93,911	2456.6	− 2528	−71.4	× 241 / 1350	−12.7
6	93,912	2487.8	− 2552	−64.2	× 206 / 1350	−9.8
7	93,913	2500.6	− 2567	−66.4	× 220 / 1350	−10.8
8	93,914	2516.8	− 2586	−69.2	× 238 / 1350	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,633	2428.6	− 2436	−7.4	× 218 / 1307	−1.2
4	93,634	2454.5	− 2485	−30.5	× 204 / 1307	−4.8
5	93,635	2469.2	− 2528	−58.8	× 234 / 1307	−10.5
6	93,636	2475.3	− 2552	−76.7	× 232 / 1307	−13.6
7	93,637	2524.4	− 2567	−42.6	× 201 / 1307	−6.6
8	93,638	2505.3	− 2586	−80.7	× 218 / 1307	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,235	2434.7	− 2436	−1.3	× 223 / 1312	−0.2
4	93,236	2464.9	− 2485	−20.1	× 213 / 1312	−3.3
5	93,237	2493.7	− 2528	−34.3	× 211 / 1312	−5.5
6	93,238	2483.5	− 2552	−68.5	× 223 / 1312	−11.6
7	93,239	2493.7	− 2567	−73.3	× 232 / 1312	−13
8	93,240	2521.8	− 2586	−64.2	× 210 / 1312	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −52, −54, −53, −48, −45, −73, −69, −55, −58, −50, −44 → −54.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 28 · 2021→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 6 → average 7.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.4 × 2.66 = 19.7. Upper limit −34.9, lower limit −74.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Salida Union Elementary