Paradise Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	97,305	2431.7	− 2436	−4.3	× 19 / 127	−0.6
4	97,306	2456.8	− 2485	−28.2	× 24 / 127	−5.3
5	97,309	2501.1	− 2528	−26.9	× 21 / 127	−4.4
6	97,310	2503.5	− 2552	−48.5	× 24 / 127	−9.2
7	97,313	2554.6	− 2567	−12.4	× 21 / 127	−2.1
8	97,314	2579.7	− 2586	−6.3	× 18 / 127	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,209	2427.8	− 2436	−8.2	× 24 / 140	−1.4
4	90,210	2474.3	− 2485	−10.7	× 24 / 140	−1.8
5	90,212	2497.9	− 2528	−30.1	× 27 / 140	−5.8
6	90,214	2503.7	− 2552	−48.3	× 23 / 140	−7.9
7	90,216	2547.3	− 2567	−19.7	× 19 / 140	−2.7
8	90,218	2570.1	− 2586	−15.9	× 23 / 140	−2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,846	2470.5	− 2436	34.5	× 26 / 137	6.5
4	92,848	2494.3	− 2485	9.3	× 20 / 137	1.4
5	92,851	2508.2	− 2528	−19.8	× 24 / 137	−3.5
6	92,852	2488.0	− 2552	−64	× 28 / 137	−13.1
7	92,855	2559.0	− 2567	−8	× 21 / 137	−1.2
8	92,857	2591.7	− 2586	5.7	× 18 / 137	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,045	2514.4	− 2436	78.4	× 17 / 125	10.7
4	93,048	2521.4	− 2485	36.4	× 24 / 125	7
5	93,049	2548.1	− 2528	20.1	× 16 / 125	2.6
6	93,052	2515.5	− 2552	−36.5	× 25 / 125	−7.3
7	93,053	2567.7	− 2567	0.7	× 23 / 125	0.1
8	93,056	2585.7	− 2586	−0.3	× 20 / 125	0
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,707	2471.0	− 2436	35	× 21 / 129	5.7
4	93,708	2551.9	− 2485	66.9	× 17 / 129	8.8
5	93,709	2547.8	− 2528	19.8	× 26 / 129	4
6	93,710	2564.1	− 2552	12.1	× 18 / 129	1.7
7	93,711	2569.5	− 2567	2.5	× 22 / 129	0.4
8	93,712	2629.8	− 2586	43.8	× 25 / 129	8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						29

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,722	2421.8	− 2436	−14.2	× 18 / 129	−2
4	91,723	2417.4	− 2485	−67.6	× 25 / 129	−13.1
5	91,724	2494.3	− 2528	−33.7	× 21 / 129	−5.5
6	91,725	2529.8	− 2552	−22.2	× 20 / 129	−3.4
7	91,726	2570.3	− 2567	3.3	× 26 / 129	0.7
8	91,727	2615.3	− 2586	29.3	× 19 / 129	4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,938	2451.7	− 2436	15.7	× 18 / 129	2.2
4	93,939	2452.5	− 2485	−32.5	× 17 / 129	−4.3
5	93,940	2498.5	− 2528	−29.5	× 23 / 129	−5.3
6	93,941	2541.1	− 2552	−10.9	× 23 / 129	−1.9
7	93,942	2601.6	− 2567	34.6	× 23 / 129	6.2
8	93,943	2574.5	− 2586	−11.5	× 25 / 129	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,846	2486.6	− 2436	50.6	× 23 / 130	9
4	93,847	2498.4	− 2485	13.4	× 17 / 130	1.8
5	93,848	2475.1	− 2528	−52.9	× 21 / 130	−8.5
6	93,849	2548.3	− 2552	−3.7	× 24 / 130	−0.7
7	93,850	2576.3	− 2567	9.3	× 23 / 130	1.6
8	93,851	2619.7	− 2586	33.7	× 22 / 130	5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,727	2491.8	− 2436	55.8	× 20 / 120	9.3
4	93,728	2518.6	− 2485	33.6	× 22 / 120	6.2
5	93,729	2498.2	− 2528	−29.8	× 18 / 120	−4.5
6	93,730	2492.4	− 2552	−59.6	× 19 / 120	−9.4
7	93,731	2559.2	− 2567	−7.8	× 21 / 120	−1.4
8	93,732	2655.0	− 2586	69	× 20 / 120	11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,459	2496.9	− 2436	60.9	× 20 / 125	9.7
4	93,460	2531.1	− 2485	46.1	× 19 / 125	7
5	93,461	2558.4	− 2528	30.4	× 22 / 125	5.4
6	93,462	2509.2	− 2552	−42.8	× 21 / 125	−7.2
7	93,463	2507.4	− 2567	−59.6	× 19 / 125	−9.1
8	93,464	2611.4	− 2586	25.4	× 24 / 125	4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,061	2493.1	− 2436	57.1	× 20 / 126	9.1
4	93,062	2524.9	− 2485	39.9	× 23 / 126	7.3
5	93,063	2530.1	− 2528	2.1	× 22 / 126	0.4
6	93,064	2550.0	− 2552	−2	× 24 / 126	−0.4
7	93,065	2546.3	− 2567	−20.7	× 21 / 126	−3.5
8	93,066	2598.1	− 2586	12.1	× 16 / 126	1.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −23, −22, −9, 13, 29, −19, −5, 9, 12, 11, 14 → 0.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 22 · 2018→2019: 16 · 2019→2021: 48 · 2021→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 13.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.5 × 2.66 = 35.9. Upper limit 36.8, lower limit −35.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Paradise Elementary