Magnolia Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores just under the grade 3 bar. 2427 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 22 points under the grade 4 bar. 2464 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 17 points under the grade 4 bar. 2468 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 21 points under the grade 5 bar. 2507 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,149	2387.0	− 2436	−49	× 71 / 314	−11.1
4	98,150	2425.0	− 2485	−60	× 70 / 314	−13.4
5	98,153	2474.5	− 2528	−53.5	× 82 / 314	−14
6	98,154	2486.6	− 2552	−65.4	× 91 / 314	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,932	2398.8	− 2436	−37.2	× 105 / 361	−10.8
4	90,935	2422.9	− 2485	−62.1	× 92 / 361	−15.8
5	90,937	2473.5	− 2528	−54.5	× 73 / 361	−11
6	90,939	2523.0	− 2552	−29	× 91 / 361	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,674	2400.0	− 2436	−36	× 92 / 348	−9.5
4	93,677	2447.0	− 2485	−38	× 100 / 348	−10.9
5	93,678	2474.2	− 2528	−53.8	× 89 / 348	−13.8
6	93,681	2493.1	− 2552	−58.9	× 67 / 348	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,888	2412.7	− 2436	−23.3	× 93 / 382	−5.7
4	93,889	2439.7	− 2485	−45.3	× 93 / 382	−11
5	93,892	2487.7	− 2528	−40.3	× 97 / 382	−10.2
6	93,893	2502.0	− 2552	−50	× 99 / 382	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,517	2432.0	− 2436	−4	× 91 / 376	−1
4	94,518	2472.0	− 2485	−13	× 87 / 376	−3
5	94,519	2505.4	− 2528	−22.6	× 96 / 376	−5.8
6	94,520	2504.1	− 2552	−47.9	× 102 / 376	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,503	2384.5	− 2436	−51.5	× 80 / 302	−13.6
4	92,504	2442.3	− 2485	−42.7	× 75 / 302	−10.6
5	92,505	2449.1	− 2528	−78.9	× 78 / 302	−20.4
6	92,506	2491.8	− 2552	−60.2	× 69 / 302	−13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,758	2404.1	− 2436	−31.9	× 87 / 314	−8.8
4	94,759	2442.5	− 2485	−42.5	× 77 / 314	−10.4
5	94,760	2490.0	− 2528	−38	× 81 / 314	−9.8
6	94,761	2500.7	− 2552	−51.3	× 69 / 314	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,644	2409.2	− 2436	−26.8	× 77 / 322	−6.4
4	94,645	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 92 / 322	−12.9
5	94,646	2450.7	− 2528	−77.3	× 63 / 322	−15.1
6	94,647	2500.4	− 2552	−51.6	× 90 / 322	−14.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,519	2411.5	− 2436	−24.5	× 82 / 340	−5.9
4	94,520	2450.2	− 2485	−34.8	× 82 / 340	−8.4
5	94,521	2459.0	− 2528	−69	× 86 / 340	−17.5
6	94,522	2492.5	− 2552	−59.5	× 90 / 340	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,245	2419.0	− 2436	−17	× 81 / 346	−4
4	94,246	2440.3	− 2485	−44.7	× 91 / 346	−11.8
5	94,247	2476.5	− 2528	−51.5	× 86 / 346	−12.8
6	94,248	2482.5	− 2552	−69.5	× 88 / 346	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,853	2427.0	− 2436	−9	× 84 / 341	−2.2
4	93,854	2463.5	− 2485	−21.5	× 81 / 341	−5.1
5	93,855	2467.7	− 2528	−60.3	× 91 / 341	−16.1
6	93,856	2506.9	− 2552	−45.1	× 85 / 341	−11.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −57, −45, −46, −40, −23, −58, −40, −49, −48, −46, −35 → −44.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 17 · 2019→2021: 35 · 2021→2022: 18 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 2 · 2025→2026: 11 → average 11.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.2 × 2.66 = 29.8. Upper limit −14.5, lower limit −74.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.