Shasta Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2439 vs. 2436.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 3 bar. 2434 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 21 points under the grade 5 bar. 2507 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
8th The average 8th grader scores 23 points under the grade 6 bar. 2529 vs. 2552. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,568	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 30 / 56	−18.8
4	91,569	2434.0	− 2485	−51	× 14 / 56	−12.8
5	91,572	2426.8	− 2528	−101.2	× 12 / 56	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,027	2422.6	− 2436	−13.4	× 14 / 46	−4.1
4	85,029	2460.6	− 2485	−24.4	× 18 / 46	−9.5
5	85,030	2439.0	− 2528	−89	× 14 / 46	−27.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,377	2370.5	− 2436	−65.5	× 22 / 62	−23.2
4	87,380	2492.2	− 2485	7.2	× 15 / 62	1.7
5	87,381	2444.6	− 2528	−83.4	× 25 / 62	−33.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,618	2397.2	− 2436	−38.8	× 13 / 59	−8.5
4	87,621	2414.1	− 2485	−70.9	× 15 / 59	−18
5	87,622	2520.3	− 2528	−7.7	× 14 / 59	−1.8
6	87,625	2458.7	− 2552	−93.3	× 17 / 59	−26.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,256	2394.8	− 2436	−41.2	× 19 / 47	−16.7
5	88,258	2484.7	− 2528	−43.3	× 17 / 47	−15.7
6	88,259	2556.6	− 2552	4.6	× 11 / 47	1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,532	2402.8	− 2436	−33.2	× 18 / 41	−14.6
4	86,533	2453.5	− 2485	−31.5	× 11 / 41	−8.5
6	86,535	2460.3	− 2552	−91.7	× 12 / 41	−26.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,593	2374.5	− 2436	−61.5	× 12 / 28	−26.4
4	88,594	2462.9	− 2485	−22.1	× 16 / 28	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,500	2391.3	− 2436	−44.7	× 16 / 44	−16.3
4	88,501	2435.1	− 2485	−49.9	× 11 / 44	−12.5
5	88,502	2483.6	− 2528	−44.4	× 17 / 44	−17.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,476	2438.8	− 2485	−46.2	× 17 / 43	−18.3
5	88,477	2469.8	− 2528	−58.2	× 12 / 43	−16.2
6	88,478	2510.1	− 2552	−41.9	× 14 / 43	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	88,169	2464.4	− 2528	−63.6	× 14 / 26	−34.2
7	88,171	2532.8	− 2567	−34.2	× 12 / 26	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,864	2439.4	− 2436	3.4	× 13 / 55	0.8
5	87,866	2434.3	− 2528	−93.7	× 13 / 55	−22.1
6	87,867	2506.7	− 2552	−45.3	× 15 / 55	−12.4
8	87,869	2529.1	− 2586	−56.9	× 14 / 55	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −53, −41, −55, −55, −31, −50, −39, −46, −48, −50, −48 → −46.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 24 · 2019→2021: 19 · 2021→2022: 11 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 2 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 9.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.3 × 2.66 = 24.7. Upper limit −22.2, lower limit −71.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.