Happy Valley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

4th The average 4th grader scores 44 points under the grade 4 bar. 2441 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 15 points under the grade 4 bar. 2470 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 42 points under the grade 4 bar. 2444 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 21 points under the grade 6 bar. 2531 vs. 2552. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores just under the grade 7 bar. 2563 vs. 2567. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	91,182	2472.9	− 2528	−55.1	× 60 / 255	−13
6	91,183	2510.8	− 2552	−41.2	× 54 / 255	−8.7
7	91,186	2541.0	− 2567	−26	× 64 / 255	−6.5
8	91,187	2577.1	− 2586	−8.9	× 77 / 255	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	84,657	2432.0	− 2528	−96	× 45 / 218	−19.8
6	84,660	2495.8	− 2552	−56.2	× 59 / 218	−15.2
7	84,662	2531.7	− 2567	−35.3	× 48 / 218	−7.8
8	84,664	2546.2	− 2586	−39.8	× 66 / 218	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	87,010	2464.8	− 2485	−20.2	× 64 / 276	−4.7
5	87,011	2492.1	− 2528	−35.9	× 60 / 276	−7.8
6	87,013	2462.8	− 2552	−89.2	× 50 / 276	−16.2
7	87,015	2539.6	− 2567	−27.4	× 56 / 276	−5.6
8	87,018	2551.3	− 2586	−34.7	× 46 / 276	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	87,258	2479.5	− 2485	−5.5	× 50 / 281	−1
5	87,259	2469.9	− 2528	−58.1	× 66 / 281	−13.6
6	87,262	2506.6	− 2552	−45.4	× 59 / 281	−9.5
7	87,263	2506.9	− 2567	−60.1	× 47 / 281	−10.1
8	87,266	2534.0	− 2586	−52	× 59 / 281	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	87,883	2458.0	− 2485	−27	× 53 / 279	−5.1
5	87,884	2474.8	− 2528	−53.2	× 53 / 279	−10.1
6	87,885	2467.4	− 2552	−84.6	× 67 / 279	−20.3
7	87,886	2542.8	− 2567	−24.2	× 52 / 279	−4.5
8	87,887	2518.3	− 2586	−67.7	× 54 / 279	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	86,157	2444.4	− 2485	−40.6	× 42 / 224	−7.6
5	86,158	2450.4	− 2528	−77.6	× 37 / 224	−12.8
6	86,159	2456.5	− 2552	−95.5	× 45 / 224	−19.2
7	86,160	2498.5	− 2567	−68.5	× 45 / 224	−13.8
8	86,161	2505.1	− 2586	−80.9	× 55 / 224	−19.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,236	2451.5	− 2485	−33.5	× 39 / 222	−5.9
5	88,237	2478.8	− 2528	−49.2	× 50 / 222	−11.1
6	88,238	2413.2	− 2552	−138.8	× 46 / 222	−28.8
7	88,239	2501.2	− 2567	−65.8	× 41 / 222	−12.2
8	88,240	2486.3	− 2586	−99.7	× 46 / 222	−20.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,151	2466.5	− 2485	−18.5	× 52 / 237	−4.1
5	88,152	2481.6	− 2528	−46.4	× 43 / 237	−8.4
6	88,153	2480.5	− 2552	−71.5	× 53 / 237	−16
7	88,154	2473.4	− 2567	−93.6	× 46 / 237	−18.2
8	88,155	2534.2	− 2586	−51.8	× 43 / 237	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,130	2429.7	− 2485	−55.3	× 46 / 236	−10.8
5	88,131	2486.4	− 2528	−41.6	× 46 / 236	−8.1
6	88,132	2498.7	− 2552	−53.3	× 40 / 236	−9
7	88,133	2513.7	− 2567	−53.3	× 55 / 236	−12.4
8	88,134	2500.6	− 2586	−85.4	× 49 / 236	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	87,828	2431.9	− 2485	−53.1	× 52 / 239	−11.6
5	87,829	2446.9	− 2528	−81.1	× 47 / 239	−15.9
6	87,830	2503.4	− 2552	−48.6	× 49 / 239	−10
7	87,831	2540.2	− 2567	−26.8	× 40 / 239	−4.5
8	87,832	2527.1	− 2586	−58.9	× 51 / 239	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	87,517	2441.3	− 2485	−43.7	× 50 / 237	−9.2
5	87,518	2469.6	− 2528	−58.4	× 55 / 237	−13.6
6	87,519	2443.5	− 2552	−108.5	× 43 / 237	−19.7
7	87,520	2531.4	− 2567	−35.6	× 46 / 237	−6.9
8	87,521	2563.1	− 2586	−22.9	× 43 / 237	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −31, −55, −40, −45, −53, −73, −79, −56, −58, −55, −54 → −54.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 24 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 20 · 2021→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 23 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 10.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.7 × 2.66 = 28.5. Upper limit −26, lower limit −83.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.