Santa Cruz County Office of Education: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	89,795	2585.9	− 2567	18.9	× 103 / 475	4.1
8	89,798	2565.1	− 2586	−20.9	× 110 / 475	−4.8
11	89,799	2523.4	− 2628	−104.6	× 262 / 475	−57.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	83,275	2591.1	− 2567	24.1	× 100 / 455	5.3
8	83,277	2579.9	− 2586	−6.1	× 108 / 455	−1.4
11	83,279	2539.2	− 2628	−88.8	× 247 / 455	−48.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	85,607	2586.9	− 2567	19.9	× 101 / 487	4.1
8	85,609	2587.9	− 2586	1.9	× 111 / 487	0.4
11	85,612	2544.4	− 2628	−83.6	× 275 / 487	−47.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	85,830	2624.1	− 2567	57.1	× 89 / 432	11.8
8	85,833	2587.0	− 2586	1	× 110 / 432	0.3
11	85,834	2551.7	− 2628	−76.3	× 233 / 432	−41.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	86,425	2596.9	− 2567	29.9	× 99 / 461	6.4
8	86,426	2612.7	− 2586	26.7	× 99 / 461	5.7
11	86,427	2543.5	− 2628	−84.5	× 263 / 461	−48.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	86,684	2491.3	− 2628	−136.7	× 104 / 104	−136.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−137

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	86,606	2455.3	− 2628	−172.7	× 136 / 136	−172.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−173

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	86,576	2452.8	− 2628	−175.2	× 159 / 159	−175.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−175

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
8	86,257	2436.2	− 2586	−149.8	× 13 / 190	−10.2
11	86,258	2465.1	− 2628	−162.9	× 177 / 190	−151.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−162

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	86,013	2447.6	− 2628	−180.4	× 170 / 170	−180.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−180

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −58, −44, −43, −29, −36, −137, −173, −175, −162, −180 → −103.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 101 · 2022→2023: 36 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 13 · 2025→2026: 18 → average 22.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 22.9 × 2.66 = 60.9. Upper limit −42.8, lower limit −164.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Santa Cruz County Office of Education