Orchard Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,496	2426.9	− 2436	−9.1	× 123 / 583	−1.9
4	88,498	2432.6	− 2485	−52.4	× 84 / 583	−7.5
5	88,500	2485.2	− 2528	−42.8	× 104 / 583	−7.6
6	88,502	2491.4	− 2552	−60.6	× 98 / 583	−10.2
7	88,504	2548.9	− 2567	−18.1	× 96 / 583	−3
8	88,506	2558.3	− 2586	−27.7	× 78 / 583	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,136	2425.5	− 2436	−10.5	× 86 / 578	−1.6
4	82,137	2461.7	− 2485	−23.3	× 113 / 578	−4.6
5	82,140	2482.7	− 2528	−45.3	× 84 / 578	−6.6
6	82,141	2503.6	− 2552	−48.4	× 104 / 578	−8.7
7	82,143	2556.6	− 2567	−10.4	× 97 / 578	−1.7
8	82,145	2589.9	− 2586	3.9	× 94 / 578	0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,421	2421.0	− 2436	−15	× 97 / 572	−2.5
4	84,424	2470.6	− 2485	−14.4	× 87 / 572	−2.2
5	84,425	2475.5	− 2528	−52.5	× 110 / 572	−10.1
6	84,428	2519.0	− 2552	−33	× 82 / 572	−4.7
7	84,429	2571.6	− 2567	4.6	× 97 / 572	0.8
8	84,431	2580.9	− 2586	−5.1	× 99 / 572	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,638	2451.5	− 2436	15.5	× 107 / 559	3
4	84,640	2468.3	− 2485	−16.7	× 91 / 559	−2.7
5	84,642	2505.3	− 2528	−22.7	× 82 / 559	−3.3
6	84,644	2526.3	− 2552	−25.7	× 104 / 559	−4.8
7	84,646	2574.7	− 2567	7.7	× 77 / 559	1.1
8	84,648	2588.0	− 2586	2	× 98 / 559	0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,236	2462.0	− 2436	26	× 82 / 561	3.8
4	85,237	2489.0	− 2485	4	× 109 / 561	0.8
5	85,238	2507.4	− 2528	−20.6	× 95 / 561	−3.5
6	85,239	2516.6	− 2552	−35.4	× 83 / 561	−5.2
7	85,240	2566.8	− 2567	−0.2	× 106 / 561	0
8	85,241	2579.0	− 2586	−7	× 86 / 561	−1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,419	2418.9	− 2436	−17.1	× 80 / 483	−2.8
4	85,420	2462.5	− 2485	−22.5	× 68 / 483	−3.2
5	85,421	2470.4	− 2528	−57.6	× 76 / 483	−9.1
6	85,422	2485.7	− 2552	−66.3	× 86 / 483	−11.8
7	85,423	2517.0	− 2567	−50	× 101 / 483	−10.5
8	85,424	2515.1	− 2586	−70.9	× 72 / 483	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,358	2394.5	− 2436	−41.5	× 82 / 491	−6.9
4	85,359	2436.7	− 2485	−48.3	× 85 / 491	−8.4
5	85,360	2468.7	− 2528	−59.3	× 67 / 491	−8.1
6	85,361	2471.5	− 2552	−80.5	× 74 / 491	−12.1
7	85,362	2515.3	− 2567	−51.7	× 87 / 491	−9.2
8	85,363	2531.5	− 2586	−54.5	× 96 / 491	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,347	2390.2	− 2436	−45.8	× 73 / 480	−7
4	85,348	2423.0	− 2485	−62	× 81 / 480	−10.5
5	85,349	2458.6	− 2528	−69.4	× 80 / 480	−11.6
6	85,350	2481.4	− 2552	−70.6	× 72 / 480	−10.6
7	85,351	2503.6	− 2567	−63.4	× 81 / 480	−10.7
8	85,352	2527.5	− 2586	−58.5	× 93 / 480	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,035	2379.1	− 2436	−56.9	× 74 / 450	−9.4
4	85,036	2432.2	− 2485	−52.8	× 69 / 450	−8.1
5	85,037	2476.2	− 2528	−51.8	× 79 / 450	−9.1
6	85,038	2463.2	− 2552	−88.8	× 80 / 450	−15.8
7	85,039	2523.4	− 2567	−43.6	× 75 / 450	−7.3
8	85,040	2490.2	− 2586	−95.8	× 73 / 450	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,806	2404.8	− 2436	−31.2	× 86 / 458	−5.9
4	84,807	2422.4	− 2485	−62.6	× 66 / 458	−9
5	84,808	2474.7	− 2528	−53.3	× 66 / 458	−7.7
6	84,809	2495.0	− 2552	−57	× 81 / 458	−10.1
7	84,810	2517.6	− 2567	−49.4	× 85 / 458	−9.2
8	84,811	2530.8	− 2586	−55.2	× 74 / 458	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −34, −23, −20, −6, −5, −48, −55, −62, −65, −51 → −36.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 43 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 14 → average 11.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.4 × 2.66 = 30.3. Upper limit −6.6, lower limit −67.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Schools in Orchard Elementary

K–8 schools

Orchard Elementary