Christa McAuliffe: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2501 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2559 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader meets the grade 5 bar. 2598 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2583 vs. 2552.
7th The average 7th grader meets the grade 7 bar. 2661 vs. 2567.
8th The average 8th grader meets the grade 8 bar. 2657 vs. 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,679	2492.4	− 2436	56.4	× 41 / 188	12.3
4	86,682	2540.7	− 2485	55.7	× 50 / 188	14.8
5	86,683	2567.3	− 2528	39.3	× 53 / 188	11.1
6	86,686	2619.5	− 2552	67.5	× 17 / 188	6.1
7	86,687	2672.2	− 2567	105.2	× 14 / 188	7.8
8	86,690	2687.6	− 2586	101.6	× 13 / 188	7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						59

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,444	2494.1	− 2436	58.1	× 29 / 171	9.9
4	80,446	2555.0	− 2485	70	× 41 / 171	16.8
5	80,449	2594.3	− 2528	66.3	× 47 / 171	18.2
6	80,450	2620.8	− 2552	68.8	× 30 / 171	12.1
7	80,453	2642.9	− 2567	75.9	× 13 / 171	5.8
8	80,454	2708.8	− 2586	122.8	× 11 / 171	7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						71

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,663	2512.5	− 2436	76.5	× 28 / 177	12.1
4	82,665	2546.6	− 2485	61.6	× 43 / 177	15
5	82,668	2600.3	− 2528	72.3	× 40 / 177	16.3
6	82,669	2630.7	− 2552	78.7	× 27 / 177	12
7	82,672	2654.8	− 2567	87.8	× 26 / 177	12.9
8	82,674	2653.0	− 2586	67	× 13 / 177	4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,873	2466.7	− 2436	30.7	× 32 / 163	6
4	82,874	2560.4	− 2485	75.4	× 29 / 163	13.4
5	82,877	2566.8	− 2528	38.8	× 45 / 163	10.7
6	82,878	2606.8	− 2552	54.8	× 11 / 163	3.7
7	82,881	2690.6	− 2567	123.6	× 23 / 163	17.4
8	82,882	2667.4	− 2586	81.4	× 23 / 163	11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						63

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,488	2510.3	− 2436	74.3	× 29 / 163	13.2
4	83,489	2528.8	− 2485	43.8	× 38 / 163	10.2
5	83,490	2584.3	− 2528	56.3	× 38 / 163	13.1
6	83,491	2613.4	− 2552	61.4	× 19 / 163	7.2
7	83,492	2658.5	− 2567	91.5	× 19 / 163	10.7
8	83,493	2714.5	− 2586	128.5	× 20 / 163	15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						70

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,812	2495.2	− 2436	59.2	× 19 / 94	12
4	81,813	2547.6	− 2485	62.6	× 32 / 94	21.3
5	81,814	2582.6	− 2528	54.6	× 32 / 94	18.6
7	81,816	2681.5	− 2567	114.5	× 11 / 94	13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						65

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,691	2514.3	− 2436	78.3	× 35 / 201	13.6
4	83,692	2544.2	− 2485	59.2	× 63 / 201	18.6
5	83,693	2578.9	− 2528	50.9	× 46 / 201	11.6
6	83,694	2604.6	− 2552	52.6	× 23 / 201	6
7	83,695	2669.9	− 2567	102.9	× 21 / 201	10.8
8	83,696	2727.8	− 2586	141.8	× 13 / 201	9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						70

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,646	2524.8	− 2436	88.8	× 39 / 172	20.1
4	83,647	2516.0	− 2485	31	× 40 / 172	7.2
5	83,648	2599.6	− 2528	71.6	× 41 / 172	17.1
6	83,649	2611.2	− 2552	59.2	× 18 / 172	6.2
7	83,650	2648.8	− 2567	81.8	× 20 / 172	9.5
8	83,651	2701.9	− 2586	115.9	× 14 / 172	9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						70

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,653	2497.6	− 2436	61.6	× 36 / 174	12.7
4	83,654	2533.8	− 2485	48.8	× 47 / 174	13.2
5	83,655	2573.9	− 2528	45.9	× 38 / 174	10
6	83,656	2568.7	− 2552	16.7	× 15 / 174	1.4
7	83,657	2661.7	− 2567	94.7	× 20 / 174	10.9
8	83,658	2688.6	− 2586	102.6	× 18 / 174	10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						59

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,329	2527.9	− 2436	91.9	× 25 / 161	14.3
4	83,330	2539.2	− 2485	54.2	× 45 / 161	15.1
5	83,331	2587.8	− 2528	59.8	× 39 / 161	14.5
6	83,332	2604.4	− 2552	52.4	× 18 / 161	5.9
7	83,333	2672.4	− 2567	105.4	× 13 / 161	8.5
8	83,334	2704.9	− 2586	118.9	× 21 / 161	15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						74

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,144	2501.1	− 2436	65.1	× 34 / 147	15.1
4	83,145	2558.5	− 2485	73.5	× 35 / 147	17.5
5	83,146	2598.1	− 2528	70.1	× 32 / 147	15.3
6	83,147	2583.2	− 2552	31.2	× 16 / 147	3.4
7	83,148	2661.3	− 2567	94.3	× 18 / 147	11.5
8	83,149	2656.5	− 2586	70.5	× 12 / 147	5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						69

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 59, 71, 73, 63, 70, 65, 70, 70, 59, 74, 69 → 67.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 5 · 2021→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 15 · 2025→2026: 5 → average 7.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.2 × 2.66 = 19.2. Upper limit 86.7, lower limit 48.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.