San Carlos Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,775	2462.2	− 2436	26.2	× 345 / 2025	4.5
4	83,776	2523.2	− 2485	38.2	× 358 / 2025	6.8
5	83,778	2540.0	− 2528	12	× 378 / 2025	2.2
6	83,781	2582.3	− 2552	30.3	× 321 / 2025	4.8
7	83,782	2610.7	− 2567	43.7	× 337 / 2025	7.3
8	83,785	2635.9	− 2586	49.9	× 286 / 2025	7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						33

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,652	2489.6	− 2436	53.6	× 354 / 2066	9.2
4	77,654	2518.5	− 2485	33.5	× 344 / 2066	5.6
5	77,657	2553.2	− 2528	25.2	× 347 / 2066	4.2
6	77,658	2586.3	− 2552	34.3	× 374 / 2066	6.2
7	77,661	2629.9	− 2567	62.9	× 311 / 2066	9.5
8	77,662	2662.2	− 2586	76.2	× 336 / 2066	12.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						47

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,796	2496.1	− 2436	60.1	× 334 / 2058	9.8
4	79,798	2534.0	− 2485	49	× 345 / 2058	8.2
5	79,799	2546.2	− 2528	18.2	× 347 / 2058	3.1
6	79,801	2591.0	− 2552	39	× 359 / 2058	6.8
7	79,804	2624.1	− 2567	57.1	× 369 / 2058	10.2
8	79,806	2661.8	− 2586	75.8	× 304 / 2058	11.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						49

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,934	2499.5	− 2436	63.5	× 299 / 2041	9.3
4	79,937	2539.0	− 2485	54	× 331 / 2041	8.8
5	79,938	2569.9	− 2528	41.9	× 347 / 2041	7.1
6	79,941	2586.8	− 2552	34.8	× 341 / 2041	5.8
7	79,942	2639.8	− 2567	72.8	× 356 / 2041	12.7
8	79,945	2659.8	− 2586	73.8	× 367 / 2041	13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						57

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,431	2496.5	− 2436	60.5	× 310 / 1949	9.6
4	80,432	2545.2	− 2485	60.2	× 280 / 1949	8.6
5	80,433	2565.2	− 2528	37.2	× 320 / 1949	6.1
6	80,434	2604.5	− 2552	52.5	× 336 / 1949	9.1
7	80,435	2626.7	− 2567	59.7	× 344 / 1949	10.5
8	80,436	2662.8	− 2586	76.8	× 359 / 1949	14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						58

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,826	2503.8	− 2436	67.8	× 292 / 1754	11.3
4	78,827	2534.7	− 2485	49.7	× 311 / 1754	8.8
5	78,828	2540.5	− 2528	12.5	× 289 / 1754	2.1
6	78,829	2588.0	− 2552	36	× 263 / 1754	5.4
7	78,830	2618.8	− 2567	51.8	× 290 / 1754	8.6
8	78,831	2635.9	− 2586	49.9	× 309 / 1754	8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						45

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,645	2522.3	− 2436	86.3	× 271 / 1701	13.7
4	80,646	2567.0	− 2485	82	× 279 / 1701	13.4
5	80,647	2576.1	− 2528	48.1	× 298 / 1701	8.4
6	80,648	2582.6	− 2552	30.6	× 282 / 1701	5.1
7	80,649	2625.0	− 2567	58	× 268 / 1701	9.1
8	80,650	2653.2	− 2586	67.2	× 303 / 1701	12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						62

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,607	2519.0	− 2436	83	× 294 / 1696	14.4
4	80,608	2558.1	− 2485	73.1	× 279 / 1696	12
5	80,609	2588.0	− 2528	60	× 262 / 1696	9.3
6	80,610	2602.6	− 2552	50.6	× 310 / 1696	9.2
7	80,611	2620.8	− 2567	53.8	× 286 / 1696	9.1
8	80,612	2660.0	− 2586	74	× 265 / 1696	11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						66

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,615	2513.7	− 2436	77.7	× 293 / 1737	13.1
4	80,616	2572.1	− 2485	87.1	× 291 / 1737	14.6
5	80,617	2584.5	− 2528	56.5	× 277 / 1737	9
6	80,618	2610.5	− 2552	58.5	× 280 / 1737	9.4
7	80,619	2632.1	− 2567	65.1	× 316 / 1737	11.8
8	80,620	2660.2	− 2586	74.2	× 280 / 1737	12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						70

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,275	2510.2	− 2436	74.2	× 303 / 1799	12.5
4	80,276	2563.2	− 2485	78.2	× 312 / 1799	13.6
5	80,277	2589.9	− 2528	61.9	× 298 / 1799	10.3
6	80,278	2614.2	− 2552	62.2	× 280 / 1799	9.7
7	80,279	2650.3	− 2567	83.3	× 286 / 1799	13.2
8	80,280	2672.0	− 2586	86	× 320 / 1799	15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						75

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,189	2521.1	− 2436	85.1	× 285 / 1778	13.6
4	80,190	2553.6	− 2485	68.6	× 303 / 1778	11.7
5	80,191	2579.4	− 2528	51.4	× 320 / 1778	9.3
6	80,192	2612.9	− 2552	60.9	× 301 / 1778	10.3
7	80,193	2650.2	− 2567	83.2	× 287 / 1778	13.4
8	80,194	2689.7	− 2586	103.7	× 282 / 1778	16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						75

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 33, 47, 49, 57, 58, 45, 62, 66, 70, 75, 75 → 57.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 13 · 2021→2022: 17 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 0 → average 6.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.8 × 2.66 = 18.1. Upper limit 76, lower limit 39.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

San Carlos Elementary