Orion Alternative: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

All students

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2477 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2557 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 12 points under the grade 5 bar. 2516 vs. 2528.

Students fluent in English

Math with English out of the way. Includes students who have only ever spoken English.

Grade bars 3rd 47 students Meets the grade 3 bar.

English learners

Students leave this group as they become fluent, so its average stays low even where they learn well.

Grade bars 3rd 12 students 67 points under the grade 3 bar.

the group's average that grade's own bar the distance between

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade. The state leaves out any group of ten students or fewer, so a grade may be missing from the charts.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,610	2456.0	− 2436	20	× 42 / 134	6.3
4	83,613	2439.9	− 2485	−45.1	× 48 / 134	−16.2
5	83,614	2476.7	− 2528	−51.3	× 44 / 134	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,553	2469.9	− 2436	33.9	× 27 / 106	8.6
4	77,555	2495.0	− 2485	10	× 33 / 106	3.1
5	77,556	2486.5	− 2528	−41.5	× 46 / 106	−18
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,688	2430.9	− 2436	−5.1	× 24 / 81	−1.5
4	79,690	2512.7	− 2485	27.7	× 26 / 81	8.9
5	79,692	2526.6	− 2528	−1.4	× 31 / 81	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,822	2429.3	− 2436	−6.7	× 23 / 70	−2.2
4	79,825	2447.5	− 2485	−37.5	× 24 / 70	−12.9
5	79,826	2524.7	− 2528	−3.3	× 23 / 70	−1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,324	2448.4	− 2436	12.4	× 36 / 70	6.4
4	80,325	2482.6	− 2485	−2.4	× 21 / 70	−0.7
5	80,326	2523.5	− 2528	−4.5	× 13 / 70	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,548	2436.9	− 2436	0.9	× 51 / 155	0.3
4	80,549	2484.7	− 2485	−0.3	× 53 / 155	−0.1
5	80,550	2533.1	− 2528	5.1	× 51 / 155	1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,514	2468.1	− 2436	32.1	× 65 / 165	12.6
4	80,515	2479.4	− 2485	−5.6	× 53 / 165	−1.8
5	80,516	2518.3	− 2528	−9.7	× 47 / 165	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,528	2456.4	− 2436	20.4	× 36 / 156	4.7
4	80,529	2484.8	− 2485	−0.2	× 70 / 156	−0.1
5	80,530	2502.4	− 2528	−25.6	× 50 / 156	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,184	2495.3	− 2436	59.3	× 49 / 146	19.9
4	80,185	2489.8	− 2485	4.8	× 34 / 146	1.1
5	80,186	2517.7	− 2528	−10.3	× 63 / 146	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,098	2476.5	− 2436	40.5	× 59 / 138	17.3
4	80,099	2556.9	− 2485	71.9	× 42 / 138	21.9
5	80,100	2516.2	− 2528	−11.8	× 37 / 138	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						36

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −27, −6, 7, −16, 5, 2, 8, −4, 17, 36 → 2.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 23 · 2018→2019: 21 · 2019→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 21 · 2025→2026: 19 → average 15.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.4 × 2.66 = 41. Upper limit 43.2, lower limit −38.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.