Panorama Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2466 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2492 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 37 points under the grade 5 bar. 2491 vs. 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,585	2385.9	− 2436	−50.1	× 14 / 46	−15.2
4	82,587	2477.6	− 2485	−7.4	× 17 / 46	−2.7
5	82,589	2482.3	− 2528	−45.7	× 15 / 46	−14.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,583	2448.0	− 2436	12	× 12 / 47	3.1
4	76,584	2441.9	− 2485	−43.1	× 14 / 47	−12.8
5	76,586	2454.3	− 2528	−73.7	× 21 / 47	−32.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,635	2402.0	− 2436	−34	× 15 / 48	−10.6
4	78,638	2498.1	− 2485	13.1	× 18 / 48	4.9
5	78,639	2446.5	− 2528	−81.5	× 15 / 48	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,782	2447.4	− 2436	11.4	× 14 / 40	4
4	78,785	2466.7	− 2485	−18.3	× 11 / 40	−5
5	78,786	2487.9	− 2528	−40.1	× 15 / 40	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,312	2427.3	− 2436	−8.7	× 20 / 48	−3.6
4	79,313	2470.1	− 2485	−14.9	× 17 / 48	−5.3
5	79,314	2489.9	− 2528	−38.1	× 11 / 48	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,871	2432.0	− 2436	−4	× 24 / 58	−1.7
4	77,872	2443.3	− 2485	−41.7	× 19 / 58	−13.7
5	77,873	2470.9	− 2528	−57.1	× 15 / 58	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,560	2444.7	− 2436	8.7	× 23 / 66	3
4	79,561	2485.4	− 2485	0.4	× 24 / 66	0.1
5	79,562	2467.8	− 2528	−60.2	× 19 / 66	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,532	2520.9	− 2436	84.9	× 17 / 65	22.2
4	79,533	2511.2	− 2485	26.2	× 25 / 65	10.1
5	79,534	2506.4	− 2528	−21.6	× 23 / 65	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						25

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,558	2429.6	− 2436	−6.4	× 14 / 56	−1.6
4	79,559	2553.6	− 2485	68.6	× 17 / 56	20.8
5	79,560	2524.3	− 2528	−3.7	× 25 / 56	−1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,224	2428.2	− 2436	−7.8	× 17 / 47	−2.8
4	79,225	2475.6	− 2485	−9.4	× 14 / 47	−2.8
5	79,226	2588.7	− 2528	60.7	× 16 / 47	20.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,152	2465.6	− 2436	29.6	× 18 / 53	10.1
4	79,153	2492.4	− 2485	7.4	× 20 / 53	2.8
5	79,154	2490.6	− 2528	−37.4	× 15 / 53	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −33, −43, −31, −16, −18, −30, −14, 25, 18, 15, 2 → −11.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 12 · 2021→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 39 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 12.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.9 × 2.66 = 34.3. Upper limit 22.9, lower limit −45.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.