Shell Beach Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2470 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2476 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader meets the grade 5 bar. 2544 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2612 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,825	2439.6	− 2436	3.6	× 62 / 244	0.9
4	81,826	2512.8	− 2485	27.8	× 52 / 244	5.9
5	81,829	2514.4	− 2528	−13.6	× 65 / 244	−3.6
6	81,830	2572.8	− 2552	20.8	× 65 / 244	5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,875	2421.0	− 2436	−15	× 61 / 241	−3.8
4	75,876	2470.8	− 2485	−14.2	× 61 / 241	−3.6
5	75,878	2536.0	− 2528	8	× 57 / 241	1.9
6	75,881	2583.9	− 2552	31.9	× 62 / 241	8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,907	2459.2	− 2436	23.2	× 59 / 237	5.8
4	77,910	2470.3	− 2485	−14.7	× 61 / 237	−3.8
5	77,911	2496.5	− 2528	−31.5	× 59 / 237	−7.8
6	77,913	2584.1	− 2552	32.1	× 58 / 237	7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,071	2432.2	− 2436	−3.8	× 50 / 226	−0.8
4	78,072	2496.5	− 2485	11.5	× 58 / 226	3
5	78,075	2488.8	− 2528	−39.2	× 59 / 226	−10.2
6	78,076	2550.7	− 2552	−1.3	× 59 / 226	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,601	2472.5	− 2436	36.5	× 53 / 213	9.1
4	78,602	2470.6	− 2485	−14.4	× 47 / 213	−3.2
5	78,603	2534.6	− 2528	6.6	× 56 / 213	1.7
6	78,604	2536.3	− 2552	−15.7	× 57 / 213	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,869	2447.2	− 2436	11.2	× 53 / 201	3
4	78,870	2510.3	− 2485	25.3	× 53 / 201	6.7
5	78,871	2522.1	− 2528	−5.9	× 41 / 201	−1.2
6	78,872	2583.9	− 2552	31.9	× 54 / 201	8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,855	2453.7	− 2436	17.7	× 44 / 196	4
4	78,856	2496.9	− 2485	11.9	× 54 / 196	3.3
5	78,857	2535.0	− 2528	7	× 56 / 196	2
6	78,858	2558.4	− 2552	6.4	× 42 / 196	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,881	2457.5	− 2436	21.5	× 51 / 213	5.1
4	78,882	2505.3	− 2485	20.3	× 48 / 213	4.6
5	78,883	2527.2	− 2528	−0.8	× 55 / 213	−0.2
6	78,884	2609.8	− 2552	57.8	× 59 / 213	16
Sum, rounded to a whole point						26

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,559	2486.7	− 2436	50.7	× 35 / 186	9.5
4	78,560	2521.2	− 2485	36.2	× 48 / 186	9.3
5	78,561	2501.9	− 2528	−26.1	× 52 / 186	−7.3
6	78,562	2618.7	− 2552	66.7	× 51 / 186	18.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						30

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,475	2470.0	− 2436	34	× 49 / 201	8.3
4	78,476	2475.8	− 2485	−9.2	× 41 / 201	−1.9
5	78,477	2543.8	− 2528	15.8	× 56 / 201	4.4
6	78,478	2611.7	− 2552	59.7	× 55 / 201	16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						27

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 9, 3, 2, −8, 3, 17, 11, 26, 30, 27 → 12
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 15 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 7.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.8 × 2.66 = 20.7. Upper limit 32.7, lower limit −8.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.