Warner Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,305	2437.1	− 2436	1.1	× 13 / 112	0.1
4	77,307	2437.6	− 2485	−47.4	× 14 / 112	−5.9
5	77,309	2431.1	− 2528	−96.9	× 23 / 112	−19.9
6	77,311	2487.7	− 2552	−64.3	× 18 / 112	−10.3
7	77,313	2508.7	− 2567	−58.3	× 21 / 112	−10.9
8	77,315	2565.9	− 2586	−20.1	× 11 / 112	−2
11	77,317	2550.3	− 2628	−77.7	× 12 / 112	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,564	2465.9	− 2436	29.9	× 14 / 79	5.3
6	71,570	2417.1	− 2552	−134.9	× 20 / 79	−34.2
7	71,573	2428.1	− 2567	−138.9	× 15 / 79	−26.4
8	71,574	2456.0	− 2586	−130	× 16 / 79	−26.3
11	71,577	2516.0	− 2628	−112	× 14 / 79	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,458	2342.6	− 2436	−93.4	× 11 / 48	−21.4
4	73,459	2489.7	− 2485	4.7	× 11 / 48	1.1
7	73,465	2385.5	− 2567	−181.5	× 15 / 48	−56.7
11	73,469	2501.7	− 2628	−126.3	× 11 / 48	−28.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	73,600	2490.9	− 2528	−37.1	× 15 / 34	−16.4
8	73,607	2379.5	− 2586	−206.5	× 19 / 34	−115.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−132

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,062	2385.2	− 2436	−50.8	× 20 / 93	−10.9
4	74,063	2397.7	− 2485	−87.3	× 12 / 93	−11.3
6	74,065	2511.6	− 2552	−40.4	× 20 / 93	−8.7
7	74,066	2504.0	− 2567	−63	× 12 / 93	−8.1
8	74,067	2434.4	− 2586	−151.6	× 15 / 93	−24.5
11	74,068	2479.9	− 2628	−148.1	× 14 / 93	−22.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,220	2383.6	− 2436	−52.4	× 19 / 100	−10
4	74,221	2419.4	− 2485	−65.6	× 15 / 100	−9.8
5	74,222	2463.2	− 2528	−64.8	× 18 / 100	−11.7
6	74,223	2424.0	− 2552	−128	× 21 / 100	−26.9
7	74,224	2472.7	− 2567	−94.3	× 15 / 100	−14.1
11	74,226	2414.8	− 2628	−213.2	× 12 / 100	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,202	2409.6	− 2436	−26.4	× 14 / 105	−3.5
4	74,203	2363.6	− 2485	−121.4	× 15 / 105	−17.3
5	74,204	2438.3	− 2528	−89.7	× 15 / 105	−12.8
6	74,205	2470.2	− 2552	−81.8	× 17 / 105	−13.2
7	74,206	2505.1	− 2567	−61.9	× 19 / 105	−11.2
8	74,207	2498.5	− 2586	−87.5	× 13 / 105	−10.8
11	74,208	2479.3	− 2628	−148.7	× 12 / 105	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	74,177	2368.5	− 2485	−116.5	× 13 / 97	−15.6
5	74,178	2377.3	− 2528	−150.7	× 15 / 97	−23.3
6	74,179	2483.1	− 2552	−68.9	× 14 / 97	−9.9
7	74,180	2476.0	− 2567	−91	× 17 / 97	−15.9
8	74,181	2485.0	− 2586	−101	× 21 / 97	−21.9
11	74,182	2515.8	− 2628	−112.2	× 17 / 97	−19.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,850	2434.9	− 2436	−1.1	× 18 / 81	−0.2
5	73,852	2402.6	− 2528	−125.4	× 15 / 81	−23.2
6	73,853	2383.8	− 2552	−168.2	× 18 / 81	−37.4
7	73,854	2498.5	− 2567	−68.5	× 13 / 81	−11
8	73,855	2514.1	− 2586	−71.9	× 17 / 81	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,864	2373.3	− 2436	−62.7	× 16 / 101	−9.9
4	73,865	2413.2	− 2485	−71.8	× 18 / 101	−12.8
5	73,866	2453.7	− 2528	−74.3	× 13 / 101	−9.6
6	73,867	2459.4	− 2552	−92.6	× 15 / 101	−13.8
7	73,868	2464.1	− 2567	−102.9	× 12 / 101	−12.2
8	73,869	2498.9	− 2586	−87.1	× 14 / 101	−12.1
11	73,870	2474.6	− 2628	−153.4	× 13 / 101	−19.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −57, −101, −106, −132, −86, −98, −86, −106, −87, −90 → −94.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 44 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 26 · 2018→2019: 46 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 20 · 2024→2025: 19 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 20.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 20.8 × 2.66 = 55.3. Upper limit −39.6, lower limit −150.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Warner Unified