San Ysidro Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,696	2403.9	− 2436	−32.1	× 549 / 3232	−5.5
4	75,698	2424.4	− 2485	−60.6	× 560 / 3232	−10.5
5	75,700	2457.0	− 2528	−71	× 510 / 3232	−11.2
6	75,702	2478.3	− 2552	−73.7	× 555 / 3232	−12.7
7	75,704	2467.9	− 2567	−99.1	× 470 / 3232	−14.4
8	75,706	2503.6	− 2586	−82.4	× 588 / 3232	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,201	2415.2	− 2436	−20.8	× 552 / 3219	−3.6
4	70,202	2425.6	− 2485	−59.4	× 566 / 3219	−10.4
5	70,205	2457.9	− 2528	−70.1	× 577 / 3219	−12.6
6	70,207	2499.3	− 2552	−52.7	× 519 / 3219	−8.5
7	70,209	2492.1	− 2567	−74.9	× 524 / 3219	−12.2
8	70,211	2497.0	− 2586	−89	× 481 / 3219	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,049	2420.3	− 2436	−15.7	× 514 / 3247	−2.5
4	72,051	2421.5	− 2485	−63.5	× 553 / 3247	−10.8
5	72,054	2456.1	− 2528	−71.9	× 569 / 3247	−12.6
6	72,055	2483.5	− 2552	−68.5	× 573 / 3247	−12.1
7	72,057	2500.9	− 2567	−66.1	× 505 / 3247	−10.3
8	72,059	2503.5	− 2586	−82.5	× 533 / 3247	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,188	2408.2	− 2436	−27.8	× 480 / 3151	−4.2
4	72,191	2435.3	− 2485	−49.7	× 531 / 3151	−8.4
5	72,192	2472.5	− 2528	−55.5	× 534 / 3151	−9.4
6	72,195	2487.7	− 2552	−64.3	× 562 / 3151	−11.5
7	72,196	2479.9	− 2567	−87.1	× 533 / 3151	−14.7
8	72,199	2520.4	− 2586	−65.6	× 511 / 3151	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,683	2426.2	− 2436	−9.8	× 491 / 3049	−1.6
4	72,684	2447.2	− 2485	−37.8	× 456 / 3049	−5.7
5	72,685	2475.2	− 2528	−52.8	× 520 / 3049	−9
6	72,686	2502.0	− 2552	−50	× 545 / 3049	−8.9
7	72,687	2472.6	− 2567	−94.4	× 507 / 3049	−15.7
8	72,688	2500.9	− 2586	−85.1	× 530 / 3049	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,761	2396.8	− 2436	−39.2	× 445 / 2791	−6.3
4	72,762	2415.9	− 2485	−69.1	× 474 / 2791	−11.7
5	72,763	2441.8	− 2528	−86.2	× 477 / 2791	−14.7
6	72,764	2471.1	− 2552	−80.9	× 495 / 2791	−14.3
7	72,765	2465.6	− 2567	−101.4	× 410 / 2791	−14.9
8	72,766	2490.9	− 2586	−95.1	× 490 / 2791	−16.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,757	2405.3	− 2436	−30.7	× 485 / 2849	−5.2
4	72,758	2428.9	− 2485	−56.1	× 465 / 2849	−9.2
5	72,759	2446.6	− 2528	−81.4	× 488 / 2849	−13.9
6	72,760	2459.8	− 2552	−92.2	× 491 / 2849	−15.9
7	72,761	2476.1	− 2567	−90.9	× 480 / 2849	−15.3
8	72,762	2486.3	− 2586	−99.7	× 440 / 2849	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,739	2409.5	− 2436	−26.5	× 453 / 2788	−4.3
4	72,740	2438.0	− 2485	−47	× 473 / 2788	−8
5	72,741	2455.5	− 2528	−72.5	× 477 / 2788	−12.4
6	72,742	2464.0	− 2552	−88	× 474 / 2788	−15
7	72,743	2474.7	− 2567	−92.3	× 432 / 2788	−14.3
8	72,744	2483.5	− 2586	−102.5	× 479 / 2788	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,453	2415.0	− 2436	−21	× 424 / 2726	−3.3
4	72,454	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 462 / 2726	−7.7
5	72,455	2474.0	− 2528	−54	× 491 / 2726	−9.7
6	72,456	2472.3	− 2552	−79.7	× 476 / 2726	−13.9
7	72,457	2474.6	− 2567	−92.4	× 451 / 2726	−15.3
8	72,458	2480.1	− 2586	−105.9	× 422 / 2726	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,475	2408.4	− 2436	−27.6	× 435 / 2763	−4.3
4	72,476	2437.0	− 2485	−48	× 452 / 2763	−7.9
5	72,477	2460.5	− 2528	−67.5	× 492 / 2763	−12
6	72,478	2486.3	− 2552	−65.7	× 478 / 2763	−11.4
7	72,479	2480.5	− 2567	−86.5	× 445 / 2763	−13.9
8	72,480	2492.3	− 2586	−93.7	× 461 / 2763	−15.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −69, −61, −62, −59, −56, −79, −75, −72, −66, −65 → −66.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 6 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 5.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.8 × 2.66 = 15.4. Upper limit −51, lower limit −81.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

San Ysidro Elementary