James Dukes Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2448 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2480 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2524 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores just under the grade 6 bar. 2550 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,314	2427.0	− 2436	−9	× 67 / 285	−2.1
4	73,317	2479.5	− 2485	−5.5	× 76 / 285	−1.5
5	73,318	2512.8	− 2528	−15.2	× 72 / 285	−3.8
6	73,321	2536.6	− 2552	−15.4	× 70 / 285	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,005	2474.7	− 2436	38.7	× 59 / 281	8.1
4	68,006	2475.1	− 2485	−9.9	× 69 / 281	−2.4
5	68,008	2512.0	− 2528	−16	× 75 / 281	−4.3
6	68,011	2538.7	− 2552	−13.3	× 78 / 281	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,821	2456.0	− 2436	20	× 72 / 292	4.9
4	69,824	2501.8	− 2485	16.8	× 66 / 292	3.8
5	69,825	2492.0	− 2528	−36	× 75 / 292	−9.2
6	69,828	2545.4	− 2552	−6.6	× 79 / 292	−1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,979	2449.9	− 2436	13.9	× 73 / 297	3.4
4	69,981	2483.9	− 2485	−1.1	× 74 / 297	−0.3
5	69,983	2512.2	− 2528	−15.8	× 73 / 297	−3.9
6	69,985	2514.0	− 2552	−38	× 77 / 297	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,499	2446.4	− 2436	10.4	× 77 / 300	2.7
4	70,500	2490.0	− 2485	5	× 76 / 300	1.3
5	70,501	2507.3	− 2528	−20.7	× 76 / 300	−5.2
6	70,502	2558.2	− 2552	6.2	× 71 / 300	1.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,591	2448.0	− 2436	12	× 72 / 293	2.9
4	70,592	2475.4	− 2485	−9.6	× 66 / 293	−2.2
5	70,593	2481.1	− 2528	−46.9	× 76 / 293	−12.2
6	70,594	2503.7	− 2552	−48.3	× 79 / 293	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,597	2442.4	− 2436	6.4	× 66 / 285	1.5
4	70,598	2472.7	− 2485	−12.3	× 78 / 285	−3.4
5	70,599	2488.0	− 2528	−40	× 62 / 285	−8.7
6	70,600	2556.7	− 2552	4.7	× 79 / 285	1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,581	2457.5	− 2436	21.5	× 61 / 253	5.2
4	70,582	2495.9	− 2485	10.9	× 59 / 253	2.5
5	70,583	2526.1	− 2528	−1.9	× 75 / 253	−0.6
6	70,584	2565.9	− 2552	13.9	× 58 / 253	3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,293	2448.3	− 2436	12.3	× 68 / 261	3.2
4	70,294	2492.8	− 2485	7.8	× 57 / 261	1.7
5	70,295	2503.5	− 2528	−24.5	× 64 / 261	−6
6	70,296	2575.7	− 2552	23.7	× 72 / 261	6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,326	2447.8	− 2436	11.8	× 54 / 234	2.7
4	70,327	2479.8	− 2485	−5.2	× 63 / 234	−1.4
5	70,328	2524.2	− 2528	−3.8	× 63 / 234	−1
6	70,329	2550.3	− 2552	−1.7	× 54 / 234	−0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −11, −2, −2, −11, 0, −24, −9, 10, 5, 0 → −4.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 19 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 5 → average 10.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.8 × 2.66 = 28.7. Upper limit 24.3, lower limit −33.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.